Syria’s fragile path to stability and global implications

Dr. (H) Avi Verma

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the rebels’ dramatic capture of Damascus represent a watershed moment in Syria’s tumultuous history. After over a decade of civil war, millions of lives lost or displaced, and unrelenting devastation, the end of Assad’s rule brings a glimmer of hope for Syrians. However, this hope is tempered by daunting challenges: the fractured coalition of opposition forces, the influence of extremist factions, and the competing interests of global and regional powers all threaten the stability of a post-Assad Syria.

For Russia, a key ally of Assad, his ousting is a serious blow to its geopolitical ambitions. Moscow’s sustained support for Assad, both militarily and diplomatically, has been a cornerstone of its Middle Eastern strategy. However, the strain of its prolonged involvement in Syria, compounded by the ongoing war in Ukraine, has exposed the limits of Russia’s capacity to project power abroad. Assad’s fall underscores Russia’s inability to safeguard its allies in the face of mounting pressures, raising questions about its ability to sustain influence in volatile regions.

Iran, another steadfast supporter of Assad, now faces diminished leverage in the region. With the fall of its ally, Tehran’s ability to influence Syria’s future is significantly weakened. This setback is likely to impact Iran’s regional strategy, as Syria has long been a key conduit for its influence across the Middle East.

The United States, while not directly involved in Assad’s removal, has long provided support to Syrian opposition forces, reflecting its strategic goals in the Middle East. This moment could redefine U.S. involvement in the region. However, Washington must tread carefully to avoid creating a power vacuum that could destabilize Syria further. The U.S. also faces the challenge of balancing its approach to Syria with its broader goals, including countering the influence of Russia and Iran.

Regional powers such as Turkey, Israel, and the Gulf states are likely to assert their influence over Syria’s future. Turkey, already deeply involved in Syria through its military presence and support for rebel factions, may seek to expand its role in shaping the country’s post-conflict trajectory. Israel, meanwhile, remains deeply concerned about the potential for extremist groups to exploit Syria’s instability. It has already conducted strikes to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into the hands of such groups, underscoring its focus on ensuring its own security amid Syria’s chaos.

The coalition of rebel forces now in control of major territories in Syria is itself a source of concern. Comprising various factions, including groups with ties to extremist ideologies, the coalition faces the monumental task of transitioning from conflict to governance. The fragmented nature of this coalition raises significant questions about its ability to provide stable and inclusive leadership.

For the Syrian people, the fall of Assad is a moment of profound uncertainty. Years of war have left the country’s infrastructure in ruins, its economy in tatters, and millions displaced. Rebuilding Syria will require not only immense resources but also strong governance capable of fostering unity among its deeply divided population. This is a moment of fragile hope—an opportunity to chart a new course, but one fraught with risks.

International reactions to these developments have been mixed. While many global leaders welcome Assad’s departure as an opportunity for peace, others caution against the risks of renewed violence or the rise of extremist factions. The international community faces a critical test: whether it can provide the necessary support to help Syria rebuild while ensuring that power does not fall into the hands of groups that would perpetuate violence and instability.

Beyond Syria, the fall of Assad’s regime has significant implications for global geopolitics. It marks a turning point in the Middle East’s power dynamics, weakening the influence of Russia and Iran while providing opportunities for Western nations and regional powers to shape the region’s future. At the same time, it highlights the shifting global landscape, with rising powers like China playing a growing role in mediating conflicts and influencing outcomes in the region.

As Syria embarks on this new chapter, the stakes could not be higher. The world must navigate a delicate balance: supporting Syria’s recovery while avoiding the pitfalls of external interference and ensuring that the mistakes of the past are not repeated.

This is a moment of reckoning for Syria and for the world—a chance to forge a future built on peace and stability, but one that will require courage, vision, and an unwavering commitment to the principles of justice and reconciliation. Let us hope that this fragile opportunity becomes a foundation for lasting change rather than a prelude to further turmoil.