By: Dr K C Gupta

SENTIMENTS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -9.0% (below average). (Thursday-Wednesday)
$NYA50R, NYSE %Above 50-dMA 64.39% (positive)
$SPXA50R, SP500 %Above 50-dMA 70.40% (overbought, barely)
Delta MSI 57.5% (positive)
ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 4/30/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 59.51%, Hybrids 4.20%, Bonds 18.28%, M-Mkt 18.00%

INTEREST RATES

Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 4.25-4.50%
FOMC 6/18/25+ hold
FOMC 7/30/25+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.36%, 1-yr 4.11%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.89%, 5-yr 3.96%, 10-yr 4.41%; T-
Bonds 30-yr 4.92%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.57%, 10-yr 2.07%, 30-yr 2.61%
FRNs Index 4.301%
US Savings I-Bonds, Rate from 5/1/25 – 10/31/25 is 3.98% (previous 3.11%); the fixed
rate is 1.10%, the semiannual inflation is 1.43%.
For current banking rates, see www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 6/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
No changes
Restricted RC 5.50%, RA 5.25%
Flexible RCP 4.75%, SRA 4.50%, IRA-101110+ 4.75%
TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.250%).

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ECONOMY

The US Federal Trade Court ruled that executive orders on TARIFFS exceeded
presidential authority & were invalid; an appeals court issued a temporary stay. On
hindsight, UK may have rushed too soon into its US trade deal.

A US budget proposal is for 5% tax on foreign REMITTANCES by US noncitizens.

Gamesa Siemens, India & Sri Lanka, sold 90% of its WIND POWER business to a consortium of TPG (US private-equity), MAVCO Investments (Murugappa family) & Tikri (Prashant Jain). Gamesa Siemens will retain 10% stake & will continue to provide technical assistance.

Many in the US are surprised by seeing heavy iron manhole covers made in India. But in global STEEL production, #1-China, #2-India, #3-Japan, #4-US. In fact, Japanese Nippon Steel’s interest in US Steel is because their combined capacity will make Japan 2 again (it used to be #1 long time ago), & India #3. This deal has been in the news as on/off/on – it seems that Trump Administration has finally cleared some sort of “partnership” – the US will hold a golden-share in the US Steel subsidiary of Nippon Steel & will also name some board members.

India has been moving up in global GDP & market-cap ranks also. India was #5 by GDP
in 12/2024 & has passed Japan to become #4, according to 2025/Q1 est. Ahead are #1-
US, #2-China, #3-Germany. The Indian economy is growing long-term at 6%+ rate
(real); for 2025/Q1 +7.4% (real). Of course, India has to improve its per capita GDP.

FUNDS

Ambani family (Reliance Industries) controlled Jio Financial Services & US BlackRock
(iShares, etc) formed a joint-venture in 2023 & it has now received the SEBI approval
for launching MUTUAL FUND business. This shouldn’t be confused with the old mutual
fund operations of Reliance Capital (Reliance Group) that were renamed Nippon India
Mutual Fund.

SPECIAL TOPICS

US State Department has temporarily suspended student VISA issuances to implement
social-media screening. Beware that customs officials can already review phone
contents including social-media feeds. Jobseekers should also be aware that potential
employers can check their social-media feeds.

Research collaboration between MIT & Tata Steel (an MIT Industrial Liaison Program
(ILP) partner) led to a startup Allium Engineering that licenses the process to make
stainless steel cladded rebars. This process can be incorporated into existing steel mill
operations & triples the life of rebars used for reinforcing concrete.

In a new twist, India is recalibrating business & trade relations according to political &
diplomatic relations. Bangladesh & Turkey are recent examples of business NOT as
usual. With relations between India & Bangladesh at a low point, why is Bangladesh
surprised by new land-port trade restrictions in NE areas? Trade through sea-ports is
unaffected for now. Relations between India & Turkey have been uneasy, but it was
noted during the Operation Sindoor that Turkey was actively assisting Pakistan with
military equipment & personnel, so access of Turkish companies in sensitive areas such
as Indian civilian airport operations was discontinued. Turkish Celebi has filed a lawsuit.
Adani Ports operates several ports in India & elsewhere – Australia, Indonesia, Israel,

Sri Lanka, Tanzania with plans for other countries. Many Indian businesses also operate
globally. Direct mixing of business & politics may have risks for Indian businesses too.
Another obvious observation is that skirmishes with Pakistan may be with DRONES &
MISSILES without involving cross-border movements of ground troops. Nuclear
capabilities won’t act as deterrents for these. As both India & Pakistan have good
offensive capabilities, but limited defensive capabilities, a danger is rapid escalation of
these air-skirmishes into a full-fledged war (unlike similar air-skirmishes elsewhere that
are quite one-sided).

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