By: Dr K C Gupta

SENTIMENTS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +0.3% (below average)
$NYA50R, NYSE %Above 50-dMA 68.44% (positive)
$SPXA50R, SP500 %Above 50-dMA 68.00% (positive)
Delta MSI 74.0% (overbought)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 5/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 60.61%, Hybrids 4.16%, Bonds 17.70%, M-Mkt 17.54%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 4.25-4.50%
FOMC 7/30/25+ hold
FOMC 9/17/25+ cut

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.40%, 1-yr 4.08%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.88%, 5-yr 3.96%, 10-yr 4.44%; T-Bonds 30-yr 5.00%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.46%, 10-yr 2.03%, 30-yr 2.65%
FRNs Index 4.291%
US Savings I-Bonds rate from 5/1/25 – 10/31/25 is 3.98% (previous 3.11%); the fixed rate is 1.10%, the semiannual inflation is 1.43%.

For current banking rates, see www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 7/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 4.50%
TSP G Fund 4.25% (previous 4.500%).

Weekly ETFs INDA -0.69%, EPI -0.47%, INDH -0.60%, SPY +0.64%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

SPECIAL TOPICS

Mukesh AMBANI’s Jio Financial & German insurer Allianz have formed joint-ventures (JVs) for life & general insurance & reinsurance. Previously, Allianz sold its stakes in JVs with Bajaj Finserv to explore other opportunities. Jio Financial has also formed recent partnerships with US BlackRock for mutual funds & brokerages.

Maruti-Suzuki EV eVitara has received good reviews in the export markets.

Luxmi Group (or Tea or Estates) buys majority stake (80%) in UK Brew Tea.

Sunil MITTAL (founder of Bharti Airtel) & the US private equity firm Warburg Pincus have bid $720 million (ask was $980 million) for a 49% stake in Haier-India (parent Chinese Haier). They also have to keep paying licensing & royalty fees to Chinese Haier. Employees may get 2%. Then, there may be an IPO in a few years. Reliance Industries (Ambani) was involved in early talks but took a pass. Chinese Haier has been looking for a phased exit.

CRYPTOS (Part 2)

BITCOIN is the most popular crypto. The maximum number of Bitcoins that can be issued is 21 million with only 5% remaining to be issued. New bitcoins are gradually issued as basic rewards to crypto MINERS who validate Bitcoin transaction blocks; they also charge additional transaction fees on a competitive basis. Since the 2009 Bitcoin inception, the basic reward has been halved about every 4 years & the news of Bitcoin-HALVING has been well-covered.

The next halving should be in early-2028. These halvings cause periodic shakeouts in the crypto industry that force inefficient & small miners to quit the business. Crypto mining is very energy & computation extensive & some crypto firms have partnered with AI datacenters.

Bitcoin has gone through boom & bust cycles. The last bust was so severe that what started as crypto crash turned into crypto Winter & that turned into crypto Ice Age (Bitcoin bottom was $15,481 on 11/21/22). Then came crypto thaw, Spring & a huge rally to where we are now (recent high $123,092) as cryptos have gone mainstream.

After the 11/2024 US elections, the US Administration & the SEC changed from anti-crypto to pro-crypto. Many SEC lawsuits against crypto companies have been dropped. Several people in the Administration & President Trump’s family members are in crypto businesses now, & some use Trump’s name (e.g. listed DJT).

In the Crypto Week, the GENIUS Act (for stablecoins) also passed the House & was signed by the President into the 1st US CRYPTO LAW; the CLARITY Act (for crypto classifications – commodities, securities & stablecoins) & the Anti-CBDC (US) Act (to prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing digital-dollar) passed the House & go to the Senate. The rush now is for the US to catch up with the leading crypto centers of UAE (Abu Dhabi, Dubai).

There are several crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) that are futures-based, or hold spot -Bitcoin or -Ether, or hold crypto companies. US crypto firm Coinbase/COIN (combination exchange, broker-dealer & custodian) is now in the SP500. Stablecoin USDC issuer Circle/CRCL had a spectacular IPO. Companies such as Strategy/MSTR, GameStop/GME, etc are holding cryptos in their corporate treasuries. Many financial advisors & firms (Fidelity, Robinhood/HOOD, etc) offer cryptos as alternative investments & recommend small crypto exposures (3-5%).

Beware that cryptos are very volatile. They are also very controversial – investors like Warren Buffett don’t like it & companies such as Vanguard have said that they won’t offer them.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/