By: Dr K C Gupta

SENTIMENTS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +2.8% (below average)
$NYA50R, NYSE %Above 50-dMA 72.87% (overbought)
$SPXA50R, SP500 %Above 50-dMA 73.80% (overbought)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 5/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 60.61%, Hybrids 4.16%, Bonds 17.70%, M-Mkt 17.54%

INTEREST RATES

Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 4.25-4.50%
FOMC 7/30/25+ hold
FOMC 9/17/25+ cut

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.42%, 1-yr 4.09%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.91%, 5-yr 3.95%, 10-yr 4.40%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.92%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.48%, 10-yr 1.96%, 30-yr 2.60%
FRNs Index 4.286%
US Savings I-Bonds rate from 5/1/25 – 10/31/25 is 3.98% (previous 3.11%); the fixed rate is 1.10%, the semiannual inflation is 1.43%.

For current banking rates, see www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 7/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 4.50%
TSP G Fund 4.25% (previous 4.500%).

Weekly ETFs INDA -1.28%, EPI -1.48%, INDH -0.46%, SPY +1.52%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

MARKETS

Several Indian firms offer accounts for Indians to invest in the US markets – Vested, INDmoney, Groww, ICICI Direct, HDFC, etc. There may be extra fees & tax complications. These accounts must be funded in US dollars. Indians can also buy international funds that are available in India.

IT/TECH

US-India satellite NISAR (NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar) is to launch on 7/30/25. Its dual-band radar instrumentations will use L-band (by JPL) & S-band (by ISRO) for 3D mapping of all earth surfaces (land, ice, water) once every 12 days.

ECONOMY

UK-India free trade agreement (FTA) was signed in London on 7/24/25. There are huge reductions in tariffs, some immediate, others phased; UK access to Indian government contracts; exemption from social security payments for 3 years by temporary workers in UK; easier visas for temporary contract workers, etc.

SPECIAL TOPICS

Small Indian pharma Stallion Labs is moving HQ to Mansfield, TX. It has received several land & tax incentives.

UK Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales’ highly advanced supersonic fighter jet F-35B (stealth, STOVL) was stuck in Southern India for 5+ weeks after an emergency landing. Indian media had lot of fun with it. It was finally fixed & flew out to another British carrier in Darwin, Australia. STOVL = short take-off & vertical-landing.

COMPREHENSIVE PORTFOLIO SOFTWARE (Part II)

These have both transactional & analytics capabilities. There are 2 ways that a portfolio software can get transactional information for buys & sells, & distribution reinvestments. The first way is the manual entry capability that used to be more common. The second way that is more popular now is with link to the brokerage or fund family. Investors may be concerned about security risks of account linking; moreover, evaluating test portfolios isn’t possible.

Morningstar Portfolio

This is a rapidly evolving new product at a low-cost; try multiyear subscription discount to lower costs. It started with very limited manual capabilities, but those are getting better. The portfolio analytics remain weak. The monthly return data are used for analytics. It will eventually replace the old Morningstar Legacy Portfolio (counted as +) that has great manual capabilities including auto-reinvestments (with just a click). Both versions are available for now & all changes made in Morningstar Legacy Portfolios are reflected in Morningstar Portfolio, but not always so for the reverse.

Stock Rover (SR)

It has a free version, but for portfolio analytics, SR-Premium with low-cost is needed. While feature rich, it isn’t very user-friendly & has a steep learning-curve. The manual mode requires manual reinvestments of distributions & that may become a monthly time-consuming chore, but if not done regularly, the portfolio data will drift from true values. A unique feature is that it uses daily return data, so its MPT statistics won’t be comparable to those from sites using monthly return data.

The list of portfolio software featured in Part I & II isn’t comprehensive. It provides insights into 5+ portfolio software with which the author has direct familiarity – 3 for Analytics (see 7/18/25 issue) & 2+ Comprehensive. Some brokers also have good portfolio capabilities, for example, Fidelity Full View. Experienced DIY investors may develop their own portfolio software using Excel or Google Sheets. Excluded from consideration here were pure charting & family budgeting software.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/