US President Donald Trump’s new agreement for joint development of Pakistan’s oil reserves, announced via Truth Social, is being touted as the start of a long-term energy partnership. But analysts warn it may bring the US more geopolitical turbulence than benefits.

The deal, paired with a broader trade agreement and a tariff cut on Pakistani imports from 29% to 19%, appears aimed at strengthening economic ties and countering China’s growing influence in South Asia. However, Pakistan’s oil reserves are modest—estimated between 234 and 353 million barrels—and the country remains heavily dependent on imports, including from the US.

Balochistan, where significant reserves are believed to exist, is a volatile region plagued by ethnic unrest and anti-foreign sentiment. China’s major presence through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has already sparked local resentment, and US resource extraction could worsen tensions. Washington may also view Balochistan as a strategic vantage point to monitor Iran, but such moves risk deepening instability.

Observers see Trump’s pivot toward Pakistan as a reaction to strained ties with India, which has resisted a US trade deal and increased purchases of Russian oil. Critics argue this is a short-sighted attempt to pressure New Delhi by reviving the old India–Pakistan rivalry, jeopardising a robust US–India partnership spanning defence, technology, and clean energy.

Pakistan’s history of strategic hedging—balancing relationships with both the US and China—raises doubts about its reliability as a partner. From Cold War alliances to CPEC investments, Islamabad has repeatedly shifted loyalties based on advantage.

Experts caution that without addressing Pakistan’s entrenched geopolitical strategy, the US risks repeating past miscalculations in South Asia. The oil deal may be framed as bold, but its economic basis is weak, its political risks high, and its strategic payoff uncertain.