By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +1.7% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 21 (extreme fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 41.74% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 44.00% (negative)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 9/30/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.72% (new high), Hybrids 4.09%, Bonds 17.33%, M-Mkt 16.86%

INTEREST RATES

Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.75-4.00%
FOMC 12/10/25+ cut
FOMC 1/28/26+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.92%, 1-yr 3.63%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.55%, 5-yr 3.67%, 10-yr 4.11%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.70%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.31%, 10-yr 1.83%, 30-yr 2.48%
FRNs Index 3.852%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 11/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 4.75%, RA 4.50%
Flexible RCP 4.00%, SRA 3.75%, IRA-101110+ 3.75%
TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.250%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 46.61 (fear)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -0.41%, INDY -0.79%, EPI -0.87%, INDH -1.20%, SPY -1.63%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

IT/TECH

Indian-American Bankin Brahmbhatt (BB), owner of US-based telecom firms Broadband Telecom & Bridgevoice (both operated under Bankai Group) & financing arms Carriox Capital & BB Capital, is accused of massive collateral fraud for a $500 million private-credit loan from lenders that included US HPS Investment Partners (acquired in 2025 by BlackRock/BLK) & French bank BNP Paribas. The BB companies claimed to provide infrastructure & other services for global telecoms. The collateral pledged was receivables & other business assets.
A few weeks after the fraud was suspected on a routine audit (invoice verification emails from fake domain addresses were found), suddenly on 8/12/25, all BB related companies (Broadband Telecom, Bridgevoice, etc) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, & simultaneously, BB filed for personal bankruptcy. The elaborate fraud of running companies on paper only went on for 5+ years. BB is also missing/hiding.

SPECIAL TOPICS

Industrial gases company Air Liquide – India (subsidiary of French company) has been expanding operations in India. Its latest is the acquisition of NovaAir – India from private-equity firm PAG (origin was in Japan but now headquartered in Hong Kong with offices around the world, including PAG-India).

BNPL – Buy Now, Pay Later

BNPL loans have been considered INSTALLMENT loans (home, auto, personal loans). Several companies are in the BNPL business – Affirm/AFRM (#1), Swedish Klarna/KLAR (#2), PayPal/PYPL, Afterpay/SQ, Zip Pay, etc. Apple/AAPL experimented with its BNPL but discontinued it in the favor of allowing other BNPL services through Apple Pay. Credit card companies (Visa/V, MasterCard/MA, American Express/AXP) also offer special pay-over-time programs for large purchases.

BNPL are easily & quickly approved, often at checkout counters (point-of-sale approvals). Interest rates on BNPL vary from 0% (really subsidized by vendors) to very high, so pay attention. Some are using BNPLs for concert tickets, Botox treatments, online shopping (binge shopping? shopping addiction?), etc. It’s not good practice to use easy credit for nonessential items as BNPL loans add up & have to be paid back quickly.

One can think of BNPL as the digital age version of the old store layaways.

Banks don’t like BNPL. Many won’t allow BNPL payments via credit cards (not good anyway), several monitor checks paid to BNPL companies & some have competing pay-over-time programs. In the past, BNPL raised red flags for banks & other lenders because they weren’t reported by credit bureaus, but FICO has started using BNPL records in its supplemental scores.

BNPLs have to be evaluated differently as there may be multiple BNPLs that are paid quickly; a larger database of BNPL records is also needed. Experian & TransUnion have started reporting BNPL loans that are paid over short-terms. However, Klarna is withholding reporting some BNPLs to credit bureaus until it’s satisfied that BNPL users won’t be penalized.

Unlike REVOLVING loans (credit cards, lines of credit – LOC), the installment loans are fixed-term loans with predefined (typically uniform) short-term payments; auto-payment options may be offered or required. Different rules apply to these 2 types of loans.

In 2024, CFPB proposed that similar rules apply to BNPLs that apply for credit cards (i.e. some of Regulation Z that followed the Truth in Lending Act (TILA)) to enhance consumer protections – disputes, returns, refunds, billing, etc. This was opposed by the industry & a downsized CFPB withdrew these proposals in 2025. Of course, existing consumer protection laws apply. Some states are also trying to regulate BNPLs.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/