By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +10.9% (above average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 45 (neutral-low)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 55.64% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 57.00% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 10/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.75% (new high), Hybrids 4.05%, Bonds 17.29%, M-Mkt 16.90%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 1/28/26+ hold
FOMC 3/18/26+ cut

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.62%, 1-yr 3.51%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.48%, 5-yr 3.70%, 10-yr 4.16%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.82%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.43%, 10-yr 1.92%, 30-yr 2.61%
FRNs Index 3.592%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 12/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 3.75%
TSP G Fund 4.125% (previous 4.125%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 38.75 (fear)
Weekly ETFs: INDA +1.90%, INDY +1.39%, EPI +2.27%, INDH +0.78%, SPY +0.12%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ECONOMY

In continuing relaxation of rules for foreign ownership, foreigners can now own up to 100% of Indian INSURANCE companies (the previous limit was 74%). Regulatory oversight would be enhanced. Companies in insurance business must include the term insurance in their names – a transition period will be allowed for implementation.

Indian quick DELIVERY model relies on small local grocery merchants (Kirana shops). Although not invented by Amazon, it’s applying the model globally. Robustness of speedy delivery needs testing for reliability & security.

Fitch has issued a rating warning for India due to falling Indian RUPEE. Because of currency translation, foreign investors in India don’t see good returns seen locally.

Ahead of USMCA renegotiations, MEXICO imposed 35-50% tariffs on several Asian countries, including India, that don’t have trade treaties with Mexico. India is in contact with Mexico.

FUNDS

In an agreement with BSE, INDIA POST will serve as distributors for some mutual funds in rural areas – new accounts, buy & sell transactions, etc. Designated India Post employees will receive special training.

SPECIAL TOPIC – LIFE INSURANCE

Life insurance is a touchy subject for many as it requires the thoughts of one’s own mortality. If you have dependents, you need life insurance to provide your dependents with resources for essential expenses. There are rules of thumb for multiples of income.

Younger families need lot of insurance, but they also have competing needs for expenses. People in retirement have lesser need for insurance – dependent spouse may be provided for from accumulated assets.

Many rely on limited life insurance provided through their employers. There are 2 problems with this: (i) the default amount is a low multiple of annual income (1x-2x) & that isn’t enough, (ii) the employer group life insurance disappears on job change, loss or retirement. Don’t load up on cheap accidental death & dismemberment (AD&D) insurance that kicks-in only for deaths from accidents.

An advantage of employer group insurance is that the default level of coverage is offered without medical underwriting, but if you want to buy more insurance, then medical underwriting is required.

There are many types of life insurance – annual renewable term-life, multiyear level-term-life (10, 20, 30 years with uniform premiums) that may be renewable, whole-life (high uniform premiums), universal-life (UL; flexible premiums with annual policy statements showing insurance charges & interest/earnings on cash value), variable-universal-life (VUL; flexible premiums; cash values fluctuate based on the value of funds held), single-premium-life (SPL; only one large premium upfront), endowment-insurance (highest premiums with saving goals that are paid on untimely death).

There are hybrid policies (or, with riders) that combine life insurance with LTCI (long-term care insurance) or accelerated benefits for catastrophic or terminal illnesses. Any benefits utilized reduce the amount of life insurance payable.

All life insurance, except annual renewable term-life, has insurance & investment/saving components that may or may not be broken down. The principle behind uniform premiums is that in earlier years, the premium is higher than the insurance component, but in later years, it’s lower than the insurance component & the difference is made up from investment earnings.

Younger families may start with a combination of mostly multiyear level-term with some permanent insurance – universal-life or whole. One advantage of permanent insurance is that it stays in force so long as premiums are paid.

Several online quote services provide quotes from 4-5 insurers but be careful to choose insurers with high credit ratings. If an insurer goes bankrupt, the recovery through state insurance program is very slow & buying new life insurance with medical underwriting may not be an option.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/