Russia could face a sharp decline in oil revenue if the United States succeeds in persuading India to curb imports of Russian crude under a newly announced trade deal, energy analysts and market traders say. The potential shift comes at a critical moment for Moscow, which is already grappling with Western sanctions and the economic strain of the Ukraine war.

Under the latest India–US trade arrangement, President Donald Trump has claimed that New Delhi agreed to reduce its purchases of Russian oil while the US lowered tariffs on Indian goods. Although Indian officials have not publicly confirmed any formal ban, refiners have already begun scaling back Russian imports.

Data shows that India’s intake of Russian crude fell by 22 percent in December, dropping to 1.38 million barrels per day — the lowest level since early 2023. Russia’s share in India’s total oil imports slipped to 27.4 percent, while supplies from OPEC producers rose to more than 53 percent. This marks a major reversal from June 2025, when Indian imports from Russia peaked at around two million barrels per day.

Market experts warn that if India further cuts purchases, Moscow would struggle to find alternative buyers. China remains the only other large customer for sanctioned Russian crude, but its capacity to absorb additional volumes is limited. Analysts say Russia may be forced to sell oil at steeper discounts, cut production, or reroute shipments — all of which would hurt government revenues.

Signs of pressure are already visible. Russian crude prices have hit record lows, budget deficits are widening due to lower energy income, and a growing number of tankers carrying Russian oil are sitting idle at sea as buyers hesitate.

While Russia has managed to redirect much of its oil away from Europe toward Asia and Turkey, both India and Turkey have recently reduced purchases amid tighter sanctions. For now, Indian refiners say they will need time to wind down existing contracts, meaning any major change in import patterns may not take effect until April or later.