By: Dr K C Gupta

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +13.6% (above average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 58 (greed)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 68.72% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 66.60% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 12/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.36%, Hybrids 4.01%, Bonds 17.32%, M-Mkt 17.31%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 3/18/26+ hold
FOMC 4/29/26+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.67%, 1-yr 3.48%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.52%, 5-yr 3.79%, 10-yr 4.26%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.87%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.26%, 10-yr 1.90%, 30-yr 2.60%
FRNs Index 3.613%

Bank Rates 
www.depositaccounts.com/


Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 2/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 3.50%
TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.250%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 33.4 (fear-high)
Weekly ETFs: INDA +0.98%, INDY +0.79%, EPI +1.80%, INDH +0.91%, SPY +0.40%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ECONOMY

BIG news was the INDIA-EU trade deal (“mother of all deals”) signed on 1/27/26, the day after the 2026 Republic Day. It followed the India-UK trade deal in mid-2025. These European deals would be huge reliefs for Indian exporters while the India-US trade deal remains elusive & unusually high US tariffs (50%) on India also remain; more US tariffs are threatened. Hopefully, the new US Ambassador GOR in India can push for a mutually beneficial & sensible India-US trade deal.

Indian telecom industry expansion includes considerations of data localization, local screening (security) demonstrable with trials, spectrum pricing & domestic competition. On some issues, the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) & Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) are not on the same page. Then, there is an overall Digital Communication Commission (DCC; under DoT) that sorts out inter- agency/ministry differences; there have been proposals to phaseout DCC since 2023, but it’s going strong in 2025. This may explain the slow rollout of satellite telecom services from Elon Musk’s Starlink, Eutelsat OneWeb & Reliance Jio, etc.

SPECIAL TOPIC – GOLD & SILVER – REDUX

A lot has changed since the feature on gold & silver in IndoUS Tribune, 10/18/24. Both gold & silver have had spectacular, in fact, generational rallies. But after the nomination of Kevin WARSH as the next Fed Chair, gold fell sharply, silver crashed.

Gold:silver ratio has also fluctuated widely. First, gold rallied more than silver & gold:silver ratio peaked at 105 in 04/2025, then, silver rallied more than gold & gold:silver ratio collapsed to 44 in 01/2026, now 55. Long-term average for gold:silver ratio is 65.

Bulk of gold/silver trading is with derivatives, so small changes in institutions taking physical deliveries can have large market impacts.

Gold/silver-miners lagged uncharacteristically at first but then caught up furiously. They have high beta in the range of 2-3 relative to the appropriate bullion.

There are several geopolitical hot spots – Ukraine, Venezuela, Iran, Gaza, etc. Other factors include the new US Administration that is more favorable to alternative assets (01/2025- ), aggressive US dollar-diplomacy, high US deficits & debt, demand from AI/datacenters, central bank gold purchases (they now hold more gold than US Treasuries), money moves to or from cryptos & evolving global spheres of influence.

Domestically held gold & silver aren’t subject to sanctions or freezes as other assets may be. Central banks are also reducing their gold held at global depositories in US, UK, Switzerland, etc & shifting those to domestic depositories.

Gold & silver bullion ETF assets are rising locking bullion that is no longer available for trading. Gold-bullion ETFs include GLD, GLDM, IAU, IAUM, SGOL, etc. Silver-bullion ETFs are SLV, SIVR, etc. There are also CEFs with complications of premiums/discounts, & Canadian CEFs with PFIC tax issues for US investors.

Gold-mining ETFs include large-cap/majors GDX, SGDM, RING, GDMN, etc; small-cap/juniors GDXJ, SGDJ, etc. Silver-mining ETFs include SIL, SLVP, SLVR; SILJ, etc.

Global-allocation SGENX/SGIIX & multi-asset GDE & PRPFX include decent exposure to gold.

It takes several years to develop gold mines. Dedicated silver mining may be only 25% of silver production with the rest being the byproduct of other base metal mining; silver use is 40% for investments, 60% industrial. Gold/silver-miners aren’t rushing to increase production but instead are focusing on dividends, buybacks & improving their balance sheets with windfall profits.

Gold & silver investments are good inflation & currency hedges. So, they are very popular in India (high inflation, steadily falling rupee), but less so in US. If you have held gold/silver investments, take some profits (i.e. rebalance). If you are new to them, accumulate gradually on pullbacks.

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