By: Dr K C Gupta

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +0.4% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 37 (fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 67.00% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 63.60% (positive)
ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 12/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.36%, Hybrids 4.01%, Bonds 17.32%, M-Mkt 17.31%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 3/18/26+ hold
FOMC 4/29/26+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.68%, 1-yr 3.42%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.40%, 5-yr 3.61%, 10-yr 4.04%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.69%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.19%, 10-yr 1.77%, 30-yr 2.46%
FRNs Index 3.633%

Bank Rates 
www.depositaccounts.com/


Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 2/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 3.50%
TSP G Fund 4.25% (previous 4.250%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 58.12 (greed)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -0.73%, INDY -1.03%, EPI -1.13%, INDH -0.57%, SPY -1.28%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ECONOMY – US-India Joint Statement, 2/6/26 included:

Indian imports from US at 0% tariff – many* industrial goods & agricultural products. Examples* provided are dried distillers’ grains, red sorghum for animal feed, tree nuts, fresh & processed fruits, soybean oil, wine, spirits. (It seems that grains for animal feed or distillation may be genetically-modified.)

Indian exports to US at 18% general reciprocal tariffs* – textile & apparel, leather & footwear, plastic & rubber, organic chemicals, home decor, artisanal products, some machinery.

Indian exports to US at 0% tariffs – generic pharma, gems, diamonds, aircraft parts.

Indian exports to US at preferential tariffs – active pharma ingredients (APIs), auto parts.

Improve mutual preferential market access & remove non-tariff barriers. Areas mentioned by US are med-tech, IT, telecom, standards (where appropriate).

Address non-market policies of 3rd parties to protect mutual economic interests. (This seems a vague reference* for dealings with China & Russia.)

India intends to purchase over 5 years $500 billion of US energy, aircrafts, aircraft parts, precious metals, tech, coking/met-coal.

(*Items generally mentioned will be finalized in continuing negotiations, but examples were provided for specificity. A separate Executive Order removed 25% penalty & provided for monitoring of Indian oil trade.)

SPECIAL TOPIC – TRUMP ACCOUNTS – UPDATE

Trump Accounts, dubbed Starter IRAs, were launched with OBBBA 2025 (budget) on 7/4/25. People would be able to start making contributions from 7/4/26. Account is opened by filing IRS Form 4547 (note “45” & “47”). Filers for 2025 taxes may include the Form with their 1040 in 2026. Online filing opened after its Super Bowl 2026 ad ran on 2/8/26. Treasury will start confirming Accounts starting May 2026.

Program Website 
trumpaccounts.gov/


Form 4547 
www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f4547.pdf


Basic Rules

(i) All US citizen minors with Social Security Numbers are eligible but only newborns between 2025-28 are eligible for the initial $1,000 government funding,
(ii) Up to $5,000/yr can be contributed after-tax after 7/4/26 (inflation-indexed after 2027) by family & friends, including parents’ employer benefit up to $2,500/yr (pre-tax),
(iii) Up to $2,500/yr additional (inflation-indexed after 2027) can be contributed by state & local governments, nonprofit 501c3 & charities; however, specific/ defined groups of children must be covered, not just particular children.

This Treasury program will be run through designated financial agents/ institutions. The funds must be invested in qualified low-cost (ER < 10 bps), broad market-cap based US stock index funds until the age 18, but can be invested more broadly after age 18. Earnings will grow tax-deferred. Withdrawals are possible only after age 18 (only exceptions being transfers to 529-ABLE or premature death) & then the normal IRA withdrawal rules apply. So, some qualified withdrawals are possible before 59.5, but penalty-free taxable general withdrawals are allowed after age 59.5.

Media has started using the term “Starter IRAs” because these are possible between ages 0-18 when there is typically no earned income that’s needed for IRAs.

As these Accounts will have both after-tax, pre-tax & tax-deferred money, taxation of withdrawals would be a bit complicated. Ordinary taxes will apply after excluding the after-tax proportion of withdrawals.

Michael & Susan DELL have announced $250 in initial funding for up to 25 million kids who aren’t eligible for initial funding by the government. Ray & Barbara DALIO will provide $250 for up to 300,000 kids in Connecticut as part of Treasury’s push for a 50-state challenge.

Several companies have announced programs to match federal contributions for their employees’ eligible kids: BoA/BAC, Block/XYZ, BoNY-Mellon/BK, BlackRock/BLK, Charter Communications/CHTR, ICI (fund trade association), J P Morgan Chase/JPM, MasterCard/MA, Robinhood/HOOD, Schwab/SCHW, SoFi, UBER, Visa/V, etc.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/