As tensions flare between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban, Islamabad has escalated military action across the border, placing a fragile Qatar-mediated ceasefire under severe strain. After Afghanistan claimed it launched retaliatory strikes along the shared frontier, Pakistani forces reportedly carried out airstrikes targeting Kabul and Kandahar.

The latest confrontation follows Pakistan’s earlier claim that it killed 70 militants in weekend strikes — an assertion rejected by Afghanistan, which said dozens of civilians, including women and children, were killed. Border tensions have simmered for months, particularly along the Durand Line, where clashes, airstrikes, and suicide bombings have intensified since late 2025.

Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Taliban of sheltering Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants and allowing cross-border attacks. Kabul has denied the allegations. Analysts note that Pakistan had initially welcomed the Taliban’s return to power following the US withdrawal, expecting close strategic alignment. However, expectations of influence over Kabul appear to have faltered.

Rather than directly addressing bilateral disputes, Pakistan has sought to link India to the unfolding crisis. Islamabad has alleged — without presenting evidence — that New Delhi is backing the Taliban or supporting anti-Pakistan militant groups. Both India and the Taliban have dismissed these claims as baseless.

Experts suggest that Pakistan views India’s expanding engagement with Afghanistan with suspicion. India has provided humanitarian aid, including food and medical supplies following a major earthquake, and has moved toward reopening its embassy in Kabul. Diplomatic exchanges between New Delhi and Afghan officials have further unsettled Islamabad, which historically considered itself Kabul’s primary regional partner.

The renewed India narrative, analysts argue, may serve multiple domestic purposes. Pakistan faces mounting internal pressures, including economic challenges, security concerns linked to the TTP, and political instability surrounding former Prime Minister Imran Khan. In this context, invoking India could help consolidate domestic opinion and justify military actions against Afghanistan.

While the border conflict deepens uncertainty in the region, experts caution that externalising blame may not resolve the structural issues driving instability. The situation underscores the fragile dynamics of South Asian geopolitics, where cross-border militancy, strategic rivalry, and internal political strains intersect in increasingly volatile ways.