Iran warned that global oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel after its forces targeted merchant vessels in the Gulf, escalating tensions in the region amid the ongoing conflict involving the United States and Israel.

Iranian officials said the attacks were part of a broader retaliation campaign following intense US-Israeli military strikes on Iranian targets over the past two weeks.

According to Iranian military spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaqari, the global energy market should prepare for a sharp surge in prices due to instability in the region.

“Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilised,” Zolfaqari said in remarks directed at the United States.

The escalation comes as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, faces major disruption. The blockade has been described as the most serious global energy supply shock since the oil crises of the 1970s.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said their forces fired on ships in the Gulf after accusing them of ignoring warnings. One Thai-flagged bulk carrier caught fire following the attack, forcing crew members to abandon the vessel. Three crew members were reported missing and believed trapped in the engine room.

Reports also indicated damage to other vessels, including a Japanese-flagged container ship and a Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier. The incidents have raised the number of merchant ships hit since the conflict began to 14.

Despite the escalating tensions, oil markets have remained relatively stable in recent days. Prices briefly surged close to $120 per barrel earlier in the week but later dropped to around $90 as investors bet the conflict may end quickly.

In response to the disruption, the International Energy Agency proposed releasing 400 million barrels from global strategic reserves, which would be the largest coordinated release in history. The United States has already endorsed the move to help stabilise global markets.

However, analysts warn that such releases would only offset a small portion of the oil normally transported through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian officials have also threatened to extend economic pressure by targeting banks connected to the United States or Israel.

Meanwhile, fighting across the region continues. Iran has launched missiles at US and Israeli targets across the Middle East, including strikes aimed at a US military base in Iraq and facilities in Bahrain.

Explosions were also reported in Bahrain, while drones crashed near Dubai airport, injuring four people.

As the conflict drags on, analysts warn that prolonged disruptions in Gulf shipping could trigger major volatility in global energy markets and threaten economic stability worldwide.