By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance 

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -17.7% (very low)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 10 (extreme fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 22.58% (oversold)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 20.40% (oversold)
ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 1/31/26
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.83%, Hybrids 4.01%, Bonds 17.25%, M-Mkt 16.92%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 4/29/26+ hold
FOMC 6/17/26+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.73%, 1-yr 3.77%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.88%, 5-yr 4.06%, 10-yr 4.44%;
T-Bonds 30-yr 4.98%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.50%, 10-yr 2.13%, 30-yr 2.78%
FRNs Index 3.669%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 3/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 3.30%
TSP G Fund 4.00% (previous 4.250%)
India Fear & Greed MMI 22.95 (extreme fear)

Weekly ETFs: INDA -1.65%, INDY -1.72%, EPI -1.56%, INDH -1.47%, SPY -2.23%
The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date. 

MARKETS 

US 48-hr ultimatum to Iran became 5-day pause, then 15-day pause, while Israel & Iran  continue the war & the Strait of Hormuz remains almost closed. Global stock & oil markets  are totally confused by this chain of events & resulting uncertainties.

FINANCIAL 

German DWS is acquiring 40% of Nippon Life India AIF Asset Management (NIAIF/NAMI).  The focus of this joint-venture (JV) will be alternative investments (alts) along with  conventional active & passive strategies for domestic & foreign investors. 

Indian central bank RBI is restricting NONBANKING products (insurance, mutual funds)  sold by banks. It will require better disclosures & fiduciary considerations for selling these  products to banking customers. RBI calls current practices “mis-selling” due to the lack of  a better word & penalties may require full refund of investments. In general, bank-sold  nonbanking products are more expensive & may have commissions. It’s best to keep  banking, insurance & investing separate. 

Indian INSURANCE & REINSURANCE markets are expanding now that foreign ownership in  insurance can be up to 100% (with an exception of 20% for LIC). The latest are Allianz Jio  Reinsurance (50-50; Allianz is German) & Kiwi General Insurance (backed by US-based  private-equity firm WestBridge Capital & Neelesh Garg, formerly with Tata AIG General  Insurance). 

The largest reinsurer now is government-owned GIC Re, but the government is encouraging  private reinsurance development with foreign capital & partnership from AIG (US), Allianz  Re (Germany), Fairfax (Canada), Munich Re (Germany), Swiss Re (Switzerland), Lloyd’s of  London (UK), etc. General insurance is nonlife insurance – property & casualty, health, etc. 

SPECIAL TOPIC – PRODUCTION-LINKED INCENTIVES (PLIs) 

5-year PLIs started in India in 2020 for 14 designated industries to advance R&D,  development of alternate technologies based on domestic natural resources,  manufacturing & to boost “Make in India”. Both domestic & foreign (Apple, Foxconn,  Samsung, etc) companies have tapped PLIs of about $21 billion (2020-26). 

PLIs promote localization of technology & don’t focus on exports exclusively. The main PLI  program is being phased down due to mixed results. PLIs have been helpful in some  industries, but not in others. PLI extensions have been made for autos, solar, steel (below)  & textile. There are also other approaches now to boost domestic production &  manufacturing. 

PLIs for specialty steel include the original PLI 1.0 (07/2021), PLI 1.1 (01/2025) & the latest  launch of PLI 1.2 on 02/2026 (announced 11/2025). 

China has filed a complaint at WTO regarding PLI & other schemes for EVs & batteries. India  has explained that these aren’t export subsidies. Due to tensions at India-China border,  China also faces many restrictions on its business activities in India. Yet, in total Indian  trade (imports + exports), China is #2 only behind US #1; if trading blocks are counted, #1- GCC, #2-EU, #3-US, #4-ASEAN, #5-China. 

US has imposed tariffs of 126% (02/2026) on Indian solar products citing PLIs for solar 

industry & noncooperation by Indian solar producers in US investigations. Indian solar  exports to US have increased dramatically from $84 million in 2022 to $793 million in 2024,  or 9.4x in 2 years. Lot of it was US demand shift from China as India was also ramping up its  solar industry. So, suddenly, 90% of Indian solar exports are going to US. 

Many countries have incentives for domestic development, manufacturing & production  that fall under fiscal stimulus & Indian PLIs aren’t unusual. To prevent foreign dumping, or  unfair trade, WTO doesn’t allow exclusive export subsidies but there is a big gray area  involving incentives for domestic industrial development. 

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