By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

Mini Feature I-BOND VARIABLE RATE

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -7.3% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 38 (fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 49.36% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 43.60% (negative)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 2/28/26
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.70%, Hybrids 4.02%, Bonds 17.45%, M-Mkt 16.43%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 4/29/26+ hold
FOMC 6/17/26+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.69%, 1-yr 3.70%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.81%, 5-yr 3.94%, 10-yr 4.31%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.91%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.36%, 10-yr 1.95%, 30-yr 2.67%
FRNs Index 3.669%

Bank Rates
www.depositaccounts.com/


Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 4/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 3.45%
TSP G Fund 4.375% (previous 4.000%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 54.92 (greed)
Weekly ETFs: INDA +4.42%, INDY +3.71%, EPI 4.33%, INDH +3.78%, SPY +3.12%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

MARKETS

RBI held the repo rate at 5.25%.

In 2025, US JANE STREET (private) was suspended by Indian stock regulator SEBI for manipulating stock, index & option markets. Jane Street contested the charges in court but agreed to put its large profits in question in an escrow account ($567 million) so that it could operate in India even as legal proceedings continued. In early 2026, the specific strategy used by Jane Street became clear.
The manipulation involved pumping & running up stocks & index-futures (less liquid in India) & simultaneously buying puts as they got cheaper (options are more liquid in India). Later, on selling the combinations, there were small losses in stocks & index-futures but large profit in related puts. This process was repeated, often daily, on a large scale to mint huge profits. While this arbitrage strategy isn’t illegal, to use it on huge scale to move the markets maybe – that’s to be determined by the court.

ECONOMY. Barron’s International column (4/13/26) has a feature on GIFT City in Gujarat.

ENERGY

LPG (in cylinders) vs PNG (piped natural gas) dilemma. LPG is domestically produced (40%) & imported (60%; most from Middle East) but bottled locally; there is an extensive distribution network for LPG cylinders. PNG is produced domestically (50%) & imported (50%; from various sources, including Middle East) as LNG & then piped into homes. So, supplies of PNG are more stable in India than that of LPG. Recently, government restricted LPG to households with PNG connections.

TRANSPORTATION

Air India Express is turning its planes into flying canvases of Indian culture & heritage. The rear 2/3rd of the plane body is used for displays with some themes. Paint isn’t used, but some process sticks the artwork on to the plane body – the term airplane-wrap is used. Durability of the artwork isn’t clear. Air India Express has domestic & regional international flights & it’s profitable (unlike Air India).

LOGISTICS. German Hapag-Lloyd (HL) has a controlling interest in the container business of J M Baxi Ports & Logistics. Baxi put its container business in a separate unit first, J M Baxi Container Holdings, & then HL got 51% controlling & 49% economic interest via its subsidiary HL Terminal Holding. Indian gateways assets are in Kandla, Haldia, Visakhapatnam, Thoothukudi, etc.

FASHION

Estee Lauder bought 100% (vs 49% previously) of Forrest Essentials (Founder/Director Mira Kulkarni, Executive Director (son) Samrath Bedi) that produces natural, organic & Ayurvedic luxury COSMETICS. Although most ingredients are edible, you cannot eat final products due to processing for external use only. Forest Essentials has 200+ stores, most in India, some in UK & Middle Eastern countries (GCC) & is available in US through online orders only.

SPECIAL TOPICS – I-BOND VARIABLE RATE

March CPI release on 4/10/26 determined the I-Bond variable rate from 5/1/26: 3.34% (unadjusted 6-mo change) (semiannual 1.67% will be used in the formula below)

US Savings I-Bonds have the current rate that is a combination of base/fixed rate & recent semiannual inflation rate (CPI-U, unadjusted; March-September-March). Rates change on May 1 & November 1 & remain valid for the next 6 months. The personal limit is $10K. Buyer cannot cash I-Bonds within 12 months; there is 3-month interest penalty if cashed within 5 years. The tax can be deferred until redeemed. They stop earning interest in 30 years. Buy late in the month, or sell early in the month, to get full month interest. Account must be opened at Treasury Direct.

Formula for composite rate = [fixed rate + (2 x semiannual inflation rate) + (fixed rate x semiannual inflation rate)]

Treasury will announce the new fixed rate & total rates on 5/1/26 (maybe on 4/30/26).

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