By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

Mini Feature AUTO-LOANS

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +5.3% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 67 (greed)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 62.37% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 50.80% (positive, barely)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 3/31/26
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 60.49%, Hybrids 4.01%, Bonds 17.98%, M-Mkt 17.53%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 6/17/26+ hold
FOMC 7/29/26+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.69%, 1-yr 3.75%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.90%, 5-yr 4.02%, 10-yr 4.38%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.95%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.40%, 10-yr 1.93%, 30-yr 2.66%
FRNs Index 3.643%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 5/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 3.50%
TIAA MYGA 4.15% (3-yr), 4.30% (5-yr), 4.40% (7-yr) (NEW)
TSP G Fund 4.50% (previous 4.375%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 68.27 (greed-high)
Weekly ETFs: INDA +1.47%, INDY +0.32%, EPI +0.92%, INDH +0.26% | SPY +2.36%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

MARKETS

India NSE exchange to launch Brent crude oil cash-settled futures (in rupees) with monthly expiries. This will allow Indian oil traders to speculate & refineries to hedge locally.

IT/TECH

SES (Luxembourg) & Jio Platforms joint-venture (JV) Orbital Connect India is weeks away from going live with its MEO satellite operations for B2B mobile services. SES acquired Intelsat in 2025 to expand its multi-orbit capacity (GEO, MEO, LEO), some in partnership with others. GEO = geostationary earth orbit, MEO = medium earth orbit, LEO = low earth orbit.

Newly listed US Nasdaq AI analytics & services company Braiin/BRAI (CEO Natraj Balasubramanian) acquired VIS Networks (CEO Umashankar Bantwal). Braiin has growth via acquisition strategy & previously acquired businesses in India & Australia. Indian VIS has customer service businesses in India, ASEAN, Middle East, US & UK.

INDUSTRIAL

Japanese DNP has a R&D center in collaboration with IIT-Hyderabad. It will initially focus on packaging for EV batteries (handled as hazardous materials) & synthesis of drug APIs.

PHARMA 

Indian Sun Pharma has a cash bid for NJ-based women’s health firm Organon/OGN (spun off from Merck/MRK in 2021). Organon develops treatments for reproductive health, contraception, fertility & has a portfolio of biologic drugs & brands for dermatology, neurology, cardiovascular conditions, oncology & obesity. It will expand Sun Pharma beyond generics & provide a larger global footprint (U.S., Europe, China, Canada & Brazil).

FINANCIAL

RBI gold reserves update: 16.7% of total reserves at 03/2026, up from 13.92% at 09/2025. With additional gold repatriations to India (i.e. bringing the gold home), 680 metric tonnes (77%) of total RBI gold of 880.52 metric tonnes are now held domestically. 23% of gold reserves held abroad (US, UK, Switzerland) is more than enough for global trading needs.

Indian conglomerate TVS Venu is acquiring PGIM India Asset Management (AUM $3.23 billion in 25 funds) from US Prudential/PRU.

SPECIAL TOPIC – AUTO-LOANS

Auto-loan calculators may be customized (see Edmunds link) to include loan amount financed, trade-in value, cash-incentive, loan rate (APRs), loan duration, title & registration fees, delayed payment starts(30-45 days), sales tax rates, etc.

Bankrate 
www.bankrate.com/loans/auto-loans/auto-loan-calculator/

Edmunds 
www.edmunds.com/calculators/simplified-pricing.html

Investopedia
www.investopedia.com/car-loan-calculator-5084761


A study was conducted for %Payoff-balance (FV) remaining at 36 months for various interest rates (APRs of 3-6%) & loan-durations (36m-84m). For high trade-in flexibility, the halfway points when %Payoff-balances were about half the original loan amounts were watched. At 36 months, the typical replacement time, the %Payoff-balances were LESS than 50% of the original loan amounts for 4-5-year loans, but MORE than 50% for 6-7-year loans.

The %Residual-values of 3-yr old car vary from 50-60% of the original costs depending on the models, miles driven, condition of the cars, etc. The %Trade-in values from the dealers will be significantly lower (40-50%). So, many people who replace cars every 3 years find themselves underwater for longer loan terms (72-84 months), i.e. they owe more than the car is worth.

A deeper look at the halfway points revealed that APRs of 3-6% didn’t have much effect, but the halfway points were significantly affected by loan durations. Car buyers are forced to extend payment durations because new cars with features just cost lot more now & that’s the only way to keep monthly payments within household budgets (or, they can buy less expensive new cars or buy used cars, & some of that is happening too).

It took decades for Americans to get into the habit of replacing (buying or leasing) cars every 3 years. But they will have to adjust to replacing cars every 4-5 years. US new car sales are typically 16 million/year & car manufacturers & dealers have interest in keeping those going.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/