Mini Feature REGIONAL FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS

By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -12.17% (low)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 39 (fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 57.13% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 65.80% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 5/31/26
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 63.26%, Hybrids 3.89%, Bonds 16.80%, M-Mkt 16.05%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 7/29/26+ hold
FOMC 9/16/26+ hike

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.96%, 1-yr 4.14%; T-Notes 2-yr 4.33%, 5-yr 4.43%, 10-yr 4.69%; T-Bonds 30-yr 5.16% (normal yield-curve);
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 2.19%, 10-yr 2.43%, 30-yr 2.95%
FRNs Index 3.766%

Bank Rates 
www.depositaccounts.com/


Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 7/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 4.10%
TIAA MYGA 4.55% (3-yr), 4.70% (5-yr), 4.75% (7-yr)
TSP G Fund 4.500% (previous 4.500%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 49.42 (fear-low)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -1.82%, INDY -2.28%, EPI -1.49%, INDH -1.70% | SPY -0.59%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

CONSUMERS

India accelerated the use E20 gasohol with the support of automakers. Some automakers didn’t notice service issues with the trial use of E20 in older cars designed for E10, but this isn’t the normal way to design & test cars. Newer cars are being designed for E20 although Maruti lost an E20 damage lawsuit. However, both automakers & consumers are concerned about an early E25 rollout. Ethanol is corrosive for some types of rubber & plastic materials used for gaskets & hoses for older cars.

INFRASTRUCTURE

AustralianSupers will make an additional investment in India National Investment & Infrastructure Fund (NIIF), as announced during PM Modi’s recent visit to Australia. Indian government owns 49% of NIIF & Finance Minister serves as Chair. Its other investors include Abu Dhabi ADIA, Asian AIIB & ADB, New Development Bank (BRICS), Temasek (Singapore), Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (Canada), CPP Investments (Canada), PSP Investments (Canada), US DFC, & several domestic institutions (Axis Bank, ICICI, HDFC, Kotak Mahindra Life).

SPACE TECHNOLOGY

Indian private company Skyroot Aerospace’s Vikram-1 LEO launch on 7/18/26 with a small payload of 772 lb (total; payload put in polar orbit was 570 lb) was successful in its 1st attempt. Skyroot cofounder Pavan Kumar CHANDANA has now joined ISRO; he worked at ISRO previously from 9/2012 – 6/2018, but left to launch startup Skyroot. LEO – low earth orbit.

SPECIAL TOPIC – REGIONAL FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS

12 Federal Reserve Banks (Fed Banks) look after the economies of their regional districts. They act as bankers for their member banks. They are self-financing corporate entities with government charters in which the government & public have some interests, but they are not government entities. They operate under the general supervision of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB or the Fed) in DC & provide feedback & data from their districts to the FRB.

Each Fed Bank has its own governing board with 9 members in 3 classes representing member banks (3 elected) & public (3 elected by member banks & 3 appointed by the board). These boards select Fed Bank Presidents subject to the approval by FRB – they don’t require presidential nominations or Senate confirmations. Several Fed Bank Presidents have much higher salaries than the FRB Chair (the Fed Chair). Some Fed Bank Presidents have gone on to become Fed Chairs.

The Fed Bank Presidents participate in the monetary policy setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings but only 5 can vote. The FOMC consists of 12 voting members: 7 Fed Governors that are nominated by the US President & confirmed by the Senate & 5 Fed Bank Presidents. FOMC monetary policy decisions are not subject to further review by the President or Congress. Due to the nature of its makeup, FOMC is a public-private entity.

The NY Fed President is a permanent member of FOMC & also serves as its Vice-Chair. The NY Fed has additional responsibilities for executing the monetary policy set by FOMC – federal fund operations, repos, QE/QT, discount window, special liquidity programs, etc.

The other 4 Fed Presidents are selected on rotating annual basis from 4 groups of 11 Fed districts: (1) Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, (2) Cleveland, Chicago, (3) Atlanta, St. Louis, Dallas, (4) Minneapolis, Kansas City, San Francisco. When listening to speeches or media interviews by Fed Presidents, pay attention to whether they are voting members. As WARSH-Fed is pulling back on Fed transparency, the FOMC may no longer be the Federal Open “Mouth” Committee.

Note that FRB & FOMC have their own Chairs & Vice-Chairs, but historically, the Fed Chair is also the FOMC Chair.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/