By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance
Mini Feature GIFT CITY in INDIA

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -15.4% (very low)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 37 (fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 25.92% (oversold)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 27.60% (oversold)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 7/31/26
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 62.92%, Hybrids 3.89%, Bonds 17.00%, M-Mkt 16.19%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 10/28/26+ hike
FOMC 12/9/26+ hike

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.24%, 1-yr 4.50%; T-Notes 2-yr 4.81%, 5-yr 4.98%, 10-yr 5.17%; T-Bonds 30-yr 5.49% (normal yield-curve);
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 2.64%, 10-yr 2.83%, 30-yr 3.22%
FRNs Index 4.056%

Bank Rates
www.depositaccounts.com/


Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 9/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.50%, RA 5.25%
Flexible RCP 4.75%, SRA 4.50%, IRA-101110+ 4.20%
TIAA MYGA 4.75% (3-yr), 4.95% (5-yr), 5.05% (7-yr)
TSP G Fund 4.875% (previous 4.875%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 16.15 (extreme fear)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -0.33%, EPI +0.34%, INDH -0.32%, SMIN -0.10% | SPY +1.27%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ECONOMY

Indian sovereign credit ratings vary by credit rating agencies: Japan: JCRA A- , R&I BBB+; US S&P BBB, Moody’s Baa3, Fitch BBB-, Morningstar DBRS BBB. Notably, all are investment-grade (BBB & better).

INDUSTRIALS

Skoda-VW-India (only 2.5% market share) has signed a MOU for the sale of a majority stake to Jindal’s JSW Group. German VW has been struggling with its wholly-owned Indian unit & will shift to minority ownership with the local majority owner JSW Group (new JV: JSW 51%, VW 49%); previous talks between VW & Mahindra collapsed. This JV will exclude VW liabilities from its tax disputes with Indian Customs. For multinational JSW, it’s an opportunity to expand in the Indian market dominated by Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Mahindra & Mahindra & Tata. JSW also owns 35% of the joint-venture (JV) JSW MG Motor with Chinese SAIC Motor (MG brand in India).

IT/TECH

Tata TCS is buying German Porsche’s (VW) auto & industrial consulting unit MHP. There is also a 5-yr contract between TCS & Porsche to deploy AI & IT in Porsche’s operations; TCS will establish a dedicated AI Mobility Center of Excellence for Porsche.

SPACE TECHNOLOGY

French Safran Space & Indian Dhruva Space will collaborate on 52-satellite surveillance constellation to be deployed between 2027-30. In other France-India corporate deals, French launch-services provider RIDE! will launch two satellites for Indian TakeMeToSpace; French U-Space & Indian AXISCADES will explore India’s microsatellite market. The official Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) & French CNES (space agency) have been cooperating for decades.

SPECIAL TOPIC – GIFT CITY in INDIA

India has several special economic zones (SEZs) in/ near major metro areas. But Gift City is a city-size SEZ with different financial rules than those that apply elsewhere in India. There are 2 business zones – DTA (domestic tariff area; 70.5%) where regular Indian rules apply & SEZ (29.5%) that have special rules under IFSCA.

GIFT = Gujarat International Finance Tec-City
IFSCA = International Financial Service Center Authority

There are attractive multiyear (10-20 years) tax incentives. Hard currencies used include dollar (most), euro, UK pound, etc; limited use of soft rupees is allowed. Participation by foreign firms & individuals (NRIs, OCI holders) are encouraged. Most regulations are under the single authority of IFSCA.

There are 3 international exchanges operating almost 24/7: INX/BSE for equities, debt & derivatives; NSE IX/NSE for derivatives, equities & debt; gold/ silver bullion IIBX.

GIFT City started in 2007, & after some basic infrastructure developments, it was inaugurated on 4/10/15. It’s 40-50% finished now (1.5 sq mi) & plans to be fully operational by 2030 (5.3 sq mi). It’s on the banks of Sabarmati River. Entertainment options in GIFT City are very limited. Visitors have described off hours as quiet, eerie, ghost-town-like, but that’s part of growing pains.

Infrastructure is all new & modern. Its primary focus is on financial, trade & international services. Major Indian companies & many global multinationals have presence in Gift City. The nearby cities are Ahmedabad (the largest city in Gujarat) & Gandhinagar (Gujarat’s capital).

There is good access by air (international airport in Ahmedabad), railways, metros & highways. There are several hotels in the GIFT City but stays in nearby Ahmedabad or Gandhinagar with easy commutes are also options.

GIFT City is like an offshore financial center, but within India. One day, it may become an alternative or competitor to HK/China, Dubai/UAE, Singapore, etc.

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