Mini Feature ONLINE FRAUDS & SCAMS

By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -2.9% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 18 (extreme fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 30.47% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 45.40% (negative)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 8/30/26
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 63.33%, Hybrids 3.85%, Bonds 16.83%, M-Mkt 15.99%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.75-4.00%
FOMC 10/28/26+ hold
FOMC 12/9/26+ hike

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.26%, 1-yr 4.46%; T-Notes 2-yr 4.74%, 5-yr 4.89%, 10-yr 5.09%; T-Bonds 30-yr 5.43% (normal yield-curve);
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 2.52%, 10-yr 2.74%, 30-yr 3.16%
FRNs Index 4.128%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 10/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.75%, RA 5.50%
Flexible RCP 5.00%, SRA 4.75%, IRA-101110+ 4.65%
TIAA MYGA 5.30% (3-yr), 5.40% (5-yr), 5.50% (7-yr)
TSP G Fund 5.375% (previous 4.875%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 43.70 (fear)
Weekly ETFs: INDA +3.54%, EPI +3.56%, INDH +1.94%, SMIN +3.03% | SPY -1.97%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

INDUSTRIALS

Mukesh AMBANI’s Reliance Industries & Rolls Royce are partnering on fighter jet engine manufacturing in India. A dedicated Aerospace Gas Turbine Complex will focus on power & propulsion technology from design & development to manufacturing, testing, production & maintenance of combat engines. Supplies of foreign engines has been a bottleneck for many Indian aerospace programs. This collaboration may extend to other areas.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Indian Messabi Metalics/ Essar Group has announced steel production in Iowa, US that will be operational by 2030 using iron ore from its mines in Minnesota (the name Messabi comes from Mesabi Iron Range in MN). The project will get some financing from the US federal agency Export-Import Bank. Iowa has a central location for transportation/ shipment of steel to industries using it & has cheaper power for electric arc furnaces used in modern steelmaking. Mississippi River is nearby. Essar Group is an Indian multinational controlled by Ruia family.

IT/TECH

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) won a 5-yr contract for GCC in Bengaluru for the US appliance & electronics retailer Best Buy’s/BBY over Accenture-India/ACN, Wipro/WIT, etc. The construction for BBY GCC started in 2024 & TCS will become owner-operator of the GCC. it will provide AI/tech & e-commerce services to Best Buy in US & Canada. Best Buy doesn’t have stores in India; a new CEO will start on 10/31/26. This is another example of foreign companies setting up GCC in India that are operated by local IT companies (Indian or foreign subsidiaries). There are 2,117 GCC in India.

SPECIAL TOPIC – ONLINE FRAUDS & SCAMS

AI is helping fraudsters & scammers to operate more smoothly. Criminals use past data leaks & dark web to gather information on victims. Poor grammar or unusual accents no longer alert people to possible frauds. With AI, polished texts, synthesized voices or fake visuals (from brief unrelated recording) can be created. Fraudsters may operate through social-media, job sites, dating apps, social mixers, etc.

Entire websites can be spoofed. Be aware of typical URL endings .com, .org, .net, .io, .ai, .edu, .gov, .us; for India .bank.in (new), .in . Beware of wrong domains, slight misspellings, extra dashes or underscores.

AI can be used for impersonations – callers claiming to be from law enforcement who demand immediate actions with complete confidentiality. Fraudsters can isolate victims & create digital-prisons. They may communicate via encrypted apps (WhatsApp, etc), may suggest the use of gift cards, cryptos, money drops or pickups, all difficult to trace. It may be hard to recover money if several days have already passed.

Fraudsters may start slow, but after a confidence building period, requests for money may start, initially small, but then in growing amounts with urgency. The ruse may be hot investments, medical or family emergencies. This process may take weeks or months & is also known as pig butchering.

Create active pauses or halts for independent verifications if you suspect an ongoing scam.

Victims often avoid informing their family members or reporting to authorities (police or FBI) until it’s too late. Other family members should offer support but avoid blaming the victims – things always look different on hindsight.

AI has weakened the boundary between real & fake.

Unfortunately, government deregulations & defunding of consumer protections have left people to fend for themselves. Never click on links within unfamiliar emails or texts – those may be for malicious websites. Families should use safe secret words for unusual situations. Use credit freezes/ locks & account transfer locks when available. Avoid putting too much personal information on social-media; use restricted privacy settings for family groups/ chats.

For more information, see ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/