Personal Finance Insights: News & Features

By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

WEEKLY DATA

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -3.6% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 26 (fear-high)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 42.70% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 61.60% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 9/30/26
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 63.30%, Hybrids 3.81%, Bonds 16.73%, M-Mkt 16.16%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.75-4.00%
FOMC 12/9/26+ hike
FOMC 1/27/27+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.16%, 1-yr 4.36%; T-Notes 2-yr 4.56%, 5-yr 4.71%, 10-yr 4.94%; T-Bonds 30-yr 5.31%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 2.25%, 10-yr 2.60%, 30-yr 3.08%
FRNs Index 4.092%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 11/1/26

TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.75%, RA 5.50%
Flexible RCP 5.00%, SRA 4.75%, IRA-101110+ 4.75%
TIAA MYGA 5.30% (3-yr), 5.40% (5-yr), 5.50% (7-yr) Stale
TSP G Fund pending% (previous 4.375%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 50.04 (greed, barely)
Weekly ETFs: INDA +2.71%, EPI +2.07%, INDH +2.48%, SMIN +2.36% | SPY -0.56%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

NEWS

FINANCIALS

Canadian Fairfax (Prem Watsa) will buy 60.72% stake in IDBI bank at a price +6.6% above GoI minimum/ reserve price, but -11% discount from the last closing market price. GoI (15%) & LIC (19%) will retain a minority stake of 34% that may be sold in future. RBI approval is pending. GoI & LIC rescued IDBI in 2019 & acquiring 95% stake; they have been trying to offload 60.72% since 2022, but price had been an issue.
Fairfax will have 2 years to comply with Indian banking regulations. Entities cannot own 2 separate banks in India, so Fairfax will sell or merge (with IDBI itself) its 40% stake in smaller CSB bank; it’s also disposing of its 15.2% stake in NBFC IIFL Finance to Blackstone/BX & others.

INDUSTRIALS

Dutch Stellantis/STLA has bought CK Birla’s stake in auto-joint-venture (JV) in Thiruvallur, Tamil Nadu, that started in 2017 & now owns 100%. It will also expand production significantly. Stellantis also has a larger 50-50 JV with Tata Motors in Pune.

In a related news, Dutch Stellantis/STLA & Tata Motors have renewed & expanded their existing 50-50 joint-venture (JV) FIAPL (Fiat India) for Indian & global export markets.

Tata Technologies will become the lead developer for Honda-Tata cars. It follows as Honda’s Indian market share has collapsed but Honda still wants a continuing presence. Indian managers were pushing Honda for localization & this deal emerged as a compromise. Honda will be responsible for quality & will retain control of technology, connectivity & driver-assist technology. Tata Technologies was spun off from Tata Motors that will now become a rival.

FEATURE: I-BONDS & SOCIAL SECURITY

September CPI & Treasury updates determined two important things.

I-BOND RATE

US Savings I-Bonds have the current rate that is a combination of base/ fixed rate & recent semiannual inflation rate (CPI-U, unadjusted; March-September-March). Rates change on May 1 & November 1 & remain valid for the next 6 months. The personal limit is $10K. Buyer cannot cash I-Bonds within 12 months; there is 3-month interest penalty if cashed in 1-5 years. The tax can be deferred until redeemed (default; recommended). They stop earning interest after 30 years. Buy late in the month, or sell early in the month, to get credit for full month interest. Account must be opened at Treasury Direct.

Formula for composite rate = [fixed rate + (2 x semiannual inflation rate) + (fixed rate x semiannual inflation rate)]

I-Bonds from November 1, 2026 to April 30, 2027: variable-rate 4.08% (semiannual 2.04%), base/fixed rate 1.40% & the total rate 5.51%.

SOCIAL SECURITY PAYOUT INCREASE

Many retirees depend on Social Security. They can start collecting benefits early at age 62 with penalties or delay benefits up to age 70 with bonuses. The full retirement age (FRA) is between 66-67 based on the date of birth. Make decision on when to take Social Security based on your personal financial situation, not on alarmist media news on the demise of Social Security. Some fixes will be found by the time the SSA IOUs at Treasury run out (there is no dedicated SSA fund) & sharp benefit cuts are auto-triggered.

The annual adjustments to Social Security payments are based on y-o-y increases in the Q3 averages of CPI-W readings for July, August, September.

Social Security COLA for 2027 is +3.6%. The salary-cap increased to $192.3K.

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