By: Dr K C Gupta

SENTIMENTS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +11.9% (above average)
$NYA50R, NYSE %Above 50-dMA 80.26% (overbought)
$SPXA50R, SP500 %Above 50-dMA 79.40% (overbought)
Delta MSI 75.5% (overbought)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 5/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 60.61%, Hybrids 4.16%, Bonds 17.70%, M-Mkt 17.54%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 4.25-4.50%
FOMC 7/30/25+ hold
FOMC 9/17/25+ cut

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.42%, 1-yr 4.07%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.88%, 5-yr 3.94%, 10-yr 4.35%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.86%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.57%, 10-yr 2.02%, 30-yr 2.57%
FRNs Index 4.281%
US Savings I-Bonds rate from 5/1/25 – 10/31/25 is 3.98% (previous 3.11%); the fixed rate is 1.10%, the semiannual inflation is 1.43%.

For current banking rates, see www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 7/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 4.50%
TSP G Fund 4.25% (previous 4.500%).

Weekly ETFs INDA -0.13%, EPI +0.23%, INDH -0.39%, SPY +1.70%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ECONOMY

US tax on foreign remittance by noncitizens is only 1% in the new budget.
Specialized O-1 visas for extraordinary abilities in arts & sciences are gaining popularity as H-1 alternatives.
Jio-BlackRock joint-venture (JV) got the SEBI approval for brokerage services in India. Recently, it got approval for mutual funds.

Reliance Industries (Ambani) may buy Russian PJSC Rosneft Oil’s 49.13% stake & half of Russian UCP Investment Group’s 49.13% stake in Indian Nayara Energy. Western sanctions on Russia have created difficulties for this old investment. Other parties considered were Adani Group, state-owned ONGC & IOC, Saudi Aramco, but Reliance has emerged as the likely buyer.

Jio-bp (JV of Reliance/Ambani & British BP; petrol & diesel) & Adani Total Gas Ltd (JV of Adani Group & French Total Energies; natural gas – PNG, CNG) have joined hands for integrated retail fuel distribution. Previously, Reliance bought a stake in Adani’s power project in MP (Madhya Pradesh).

SPECIAL TOPICS

AI 171 (Boeing 787-8, Dreamliner) black-box data recovery is being done at AAIB, New Delhi. Beyond physical causes (engines, flaps, landing gear), also being considered are software issues & sabotage (contaminated or damaged fuel lines).

CRYPTOS (Part 1)

When you visit a casino, you exchange money for casino chips & you use only those within the casino – to make bets, play at slot machines, order drinks, give tips to hostesses. When you leave, you stop by the cashier to exchange chips back into money.

You can think of CRYPTOS as digital money without reference to money except maybe for initial entry & final exit. You keep cryptos in digital WALLETS & use special KEYS (public & private) to access them. If you forget or lose your keys, your cryptos become inaccessible by you or anyone else.

Crypto wallets may be hot (active, online) or cold (passive, offline). For transactions, you have to move cryptos from a cold to hot wallet.

BLOCKCHAIN is the distributed ledger technology (DLT) software that keeps track of validated crypto transactions. While basic transaction information is visible, it’s difficult to trace the originating & receiving parties or the purpose of transactions. This privacy feature may have a legitimate or illicit/criminal purpose, but a significant % of crypto transactions are for illicit purposes.

Cryptos don’t fall under the authority of central banks, so crypto supply & demand cannot be adjusted like for money (through overnight rates, repos, QE/QT). This may be different for evolving central bank digital currencies (CBDCs; e.g. digital-yuan).

Crypto TOKENS may have any reference – money (stablecoins), art, collectibles, real estate, etc. Almost anything of value can be tokenized.

BITCOIN (2009- ) is the most popular crypto. Its total supply is fixed, so its value changes with demand.

Most other cryptos have limited or at-will creation, so their values don’t change as much with demand. ETHER (2015- ) is a well-known example with limited creation.

MEMECOINS are literally joke coins that start trading & have some trading value associated with them. An example is Dogecoin (2013- ), that stands for dog-e-coin, a joke by Elon MUSK, who cleverly also called his budget slashing unit DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency; 01/2025- ) & even used a similar logo.

STABLECOINS try to maintain value at $1 on best-efforts basis. Some stablecoins have collapsed because their sponsors went bankrupt & people lost money. Some regulations are coming for reserve requirements for stablecoins.

Cryptos trade 24/7 on crypto exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Uniswap, dYdX, etc. You can check crypto quotes when some important news breaks. Cryptos seem to correlate well with Nasdaq stocks.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/