By: Dr K C Gupta

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -6.6% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 43 (fear-low)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 59.05% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 62.80% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 1/31/26
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.83%, Hybrids 4.01%, Bonds 17.25%, M-Mkt 16.92%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 3/18/26+ hold
FOMC 4/29/26+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.67%, 1-yr 3.48%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.38%, 5-yr 3.51%, 10-yr 3.97%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.64%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.11%, 10-yr 1.72%, 30-yr 2.43%
FRNs Index 3.623%

Bank Rates
 www.depositaccounts.com/


Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 3/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 3.30%
TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.250%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 57.06 (greed)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -2.15%, INDY -2.58%, EPI -1.88%, INDH -2.31%, SPY -0.50%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

FINANCIALS

Indian real-time payment system UPI will soon be available in Malaysia, Maldives & Oman. It will also be supported by China-based app AliPay+ (Ant). It’s already accepted in Bhutan, France, Mauritius, Nepal, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Qatar, UAE. 
UPI One World for international travelers was launched at AI Impact Summit (02/2026) in India. CheqUPI from Transcorp-India links to credit/ debit cards. Fee to join, to load money & for transactions (by credit/ debit cards; currency fee extra); payments are limited to large businesses for now.

Japan’s recent investments in India include MUFG & Sriram (nonbank financial), JFE & Bhushan Power & Steel, Mizuho & Avendus (financial); SMBC was cleared for a wholly-owned Indian subsidiary (it previously bought 24.2% stake in YES Bank), etc.
India may soon raise foreign ownership of state-owned banks from 20% to 49%.

SPECIAL TOPICS

German logistics & material handling company Beumer Group has expanded manufacturing facilities in MET City, Jhajjar, Haryana. The new facility will produce airport baggage handling systems, logistics conveying & sorting equipment, cement packing & loading machinery, & components for mineral & mining machines.

ASSET PLACEMENT – Where to Put Things?

Investors have various types of accounts – taxable, tax-deferred (401k/403b/457, Traditional IRA/ TIRA, annuities, UTMA, Trump Accounts), tax-free (Roth versions, 529, HSA; limitations apply).

So, where do you put stuff?

In TAXABLE accounts, you pay taxes on interest/ dividends & realized capital gains (CGs). Unrealized CGs aren’t taxed until you sell. On death, there is step-up of cost-basis, so inheritors pay taxes on CGs only from the date of death of the owner. If you lose money, there are some tax breaks – realized losses can offset realized gains, & beyond that, up to $3,000 in ordinary income. Excess (unused) realized losses can be carried in future forever. This is why tax-loss harvesting (TLH) is important – you maintain exposure but book losses to offset potential realized CGs in future.

If some stocks have appreciated a lot, you can donate them to charity or your own DAF & claim itemized deductions for the donated amounts. You can also make partial donation so that tax on the gain for the amount you keep can be offset by itemized deduction for the amount you donate.

So, taxable accounts offer lot of flexibility & are preferred for high risk, high reward assets.

In TAX-DEFERRED 401k/403b accounts, contributions are pre-tax, earnings (dividends & CG distributions) accumulate tax-deferred, but withdrawals after 59.5 are fully taxed. This also applies to annuities (qualified) within 401k/403b.

Tax-deferred TIRAs may have a mix of of pre-tax & after-tax (TIRA-basis) money from contributions & rollovers. Pre-tax contributions result when they are eligible for deductions based on income & 401k/403b participation. While all the money grows tax-deferred, only the pre-tax proportion of withdrawal (after 59.5) is taxed & the TIRA-basis is reduced by the after-tax amount attributed to withdrawals in Form 8606; without 8606, the IRS will assume 0 TIRA-basis & tax the entire withdrawal.

Commercial annuities (nonqualified) have after-tax contributions (except for 1035 exchanges), money grows tax-deferred & withdrawals after 59.5 are taxed after subtracting the contributions divided by life-expectancy.

Conservative/ moderate & income-oriented vehicles are appropriate for tax-deferred accounts.

ROTH versions have TAX-FREE withdrawals after 59.5 (limitations apply). So, they are appropriate for high risk, high reward assets.

Qualified withdrawals from 529 (educational) & HSA (healthcare) are tax-free. Conservative/ moderate & income-oriented assets are suitable due to their purposes.

Tax-advantaged vehicles have 10% early withdrawal penalties before 59.5 (20% before 65 for HSA); exceptions such as 72T may apply.

These are broad guidelines & personal situations vary.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/