Personal finance insights: Market sentiments, investment strategies & economic trends
By: Dr K C Gupta
SENTIMENTS
AAII Bull-Bear Spread -37.8% (very low). (Thursday-Wednesday)
$NYA50R, NYSE 40.77% (negative)
$SPXA50R, SP500 47.40% (negative)
Delta MSI 43.9% (negative)
ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative)
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.10%, Hybrids 4.23%, Bonds 17.38%, M-Mkt 17.30%
INTEREST RATES
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 4.25-4.50%
FOMC 3/19/25+ hold
FOMC 5/7/25+ hold
Treasury
T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.34%, 1-yr 4.05%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.99%, 5-yr 4.09%, 10-yr 4.32%; T-Bonds
30-yr 4.62%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.57%, 10-yr 1.99%, 30-yr 2.36%
FRNs Index 4.255%
US Savings I-Bonds, Rate from 5/1/24 – 10/31/24 is 4.28%; the fixed rate is 1.30%, the semiannual inflation is 1.48%.
For current banking rates, see www.depositaccounts.com/
Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 3/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.50%, RA 5.25%
Flexible RCP 4.75%, SRA 4.50%, IRA-101110+ 4.75%
TSP G Fund 4.250% (previous 4.625%).
Due to publication lag, the data above are as of the Sunday preceding.
MARKETS
The US markets were volatile as several US tariffs kicked in. These apply to friends & foes.
There is high uncertainty due to tariff announcements & many modifications. Indiscriminate DOGE reductions of federal payouts & cuts in federal jobs continue – these will start to affect the data from April. There was a dramatic reversal the US support for Ukraine in its war against Russia.
The next are reciprocal tariffs – the US would just match the foreign tariffs. First-pal Elon MUSK is pushing for 0% reciprocal tariffs on autos to make a splashy Tesla entry in the Indian EV market. That would bypass the tough negotiations with the Indian Government that he has faced so far.
The emerging-markets (EMs), including India, were also volatile. The Indian stocks remain in correction despite the rebound of the last few days.
Chinese AI DeepSeek surprise has initiated some foreign fund shift from India to China. There are other factors such as valuations, geopolitical issues, etc, but in 2025, the Indian market is down -4.87%, while the Chinese market is up +0.62%; for 6 months, -8.44%, +21.94%, respectively. Also, the Indian market returns for the US investors are negatively impacted by weakening rupee.
ECONOMY
Global shipping & logistics giant MAERSK, Denmark, plans to invest $5 billion in Indian port facilities Pipavav in Gujarat & Vadhavan in Maharashtra. It’s conditional on getting related approvals from Gujarat & Maharashtra governments, but those governments are also considering competitive bids.
RETIREMENT
DOGE is now going after the Social Security Administration (SSA). The charges of massive fraud have been discredited by accounting for dependent & survivor benefits that are tracked under the original Social Security recipient who may have passed away. There are problems with the SSA, but those don’t include fraud. There is a big mismatch in the FICA revenues & the benefits paid out that the Congress must address within 10 years. Don’t panic – take Social
Security early only if you need it for living expenses.
Take Administration’s promise to protect Social Security with a grain of salt – just look at how those worked for Medicare & Medicaid. If your SSA check suddenly stops, DOGE probably ate it. So, keep an eye on your SSA direct deposits, sign up or login to My Social Security & print your work earnings history & information on benefits. Fraudsters are already sending fake emails or making fraudulent calls – the SSA doesn’t do that unless it has sent you a formal notification via the USPS. Good news is that some WEP & GPO checks are going out already.
SPECIAL TOPICS
US private-equity/credit firm KKR is buying a 54% stake in Indian Healthcare Global Enterprises (NSE – HCG); additional market purchases may raise the stake to 77%. HCG operates 25 oncology (cancer) centers in 19 cities in India. Previous KKR investments in healthcare have included Baby Memorial Hospital (multi-specialty hospital chain), Healthium (medical devices), Infinx (med-tech revenue solutions), Max Healthcare (hospital network), JB (branded pharma) & Gland Pharma (generic injectables).
Trump’s proposed GOLD CARD for US Residency for $5 million / Rs 43.5 crores (with path to US citizenship) will also exempt non-US income from US taxes; normally, the US residents or citizens pay US taxes on global income. There may be background checks (criminal, fraud, etc).
The current EB-5 Visa requires US investment of $800K to $1.05 million for 10+ jobs creation (including job maintenance in troubled businesses; applicants’ families are excluded from the jobs count) & it may be phased out.
For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/
