By: Dr K C Gupta

SENTIMENTS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -31.4% (very low). (Thursday-Wednesday)
$NYA50R, NYSE %Above 50-dMA 19.89% (oversold)
$SPXA50R, SP500 %Above 50-dMA 24.60% (oversold)
Delta MSI 24.0% (oversold)
ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative)
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 60.36%, Hybrids 4.24%, Bonds 17.81%, M-Mkt 17.59%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 4.25-4.50%
FOMC 5/7/25+ hold
FOMC 6/18/25+ cut

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.34%, 1-yr 3.99%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.81%, 5-yr 3.95%, 10-yr 4.34%; T-
Bonds 30-yr 4.80%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.69%, 10-yr 2.11%, 30-yr 2.59%
FRNs Index 4.271%

US SAVINGS I-Bonds rate from 11/1/24 – 4/30/25 is 3.11%%; the fixed rate is 1.20%,
the semiannual inflation is 0.9506% (new from 5/1/25 1.43%).
For current banking rates, see www.depositaccounts.com/
Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 4/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 4.50%
TSP G Fund 4.250% (previous 4.250%).
The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

MARKETS

GLOBAL STOCKS have been very volatile due to confusing tariff news & signals. Note
that the US tariffs apply to goods, not services. Indian global exports are 22% of GDP,
12.34% in goods & 9.66% in services (mostly IT, back-office work, call-centers). Goods
exports to the US are 18% of the total goods exports. While all exports will be affected
by the US slowdown or recession, India is relatively insulated from the US tariff policies
& economy.

BARRON’S “International Trader” has a favorable piece on India. The ETFs for the US
investors include INDA, EPI & tiny rupee-hedged INDH.

Beyond the 90-day US TARIFF PAUSE, the announcements & news reports, April 11-
13, 2025, on “technical” tariff EXEMPTIONS for electronics appeared to significantly
dilute high tariffs on China; Taiwan, S Korea & others will also benefit. It became clear
later that this exemption was only temporary & new sector-specific tariffs are coming for
electronics & pharma. Surprising, the 1st new trade deal has yet to be announced as no
country wants to rush into a bad trade deal.

IT/TECH

Another web BROWSER? There are Chrome, Safari, Edge, Firefox, Opera, etc. In
2020, Indian MeitY launched a domestic browser challenge to meet several special
requirements – multilingual capabilities, special data privacy & security features, cross-
platform functionality, compliance with global standards, digital signing, etc.  Indian
IT/Saas company Zoho’s browser Ulaa won the browser challenge.

ECONOMY

US calculations of initial tariffs were based on trade imbalances (26% for India) &
weren’t “reciprocal”. An eventual tariff-wall in the US may have unintended
consequences. Some countries with higher US tariffs may shift production to those with
lower tariffs rather than rushing into the US. Production in countries with tolerable US
tariffs may just stay put as there will be no point in near/friend-shoring. There is also lot
of lip service by non-US companies in announcing new capex & jobs in US, but not all
will follow through.

INDIA-US bilateral trade negotiations continue & India hopes to avoid any tariffs beyond
those negotiated. However, zero-for-zero tariffs are unlikely. The EU & others may
demand similar trade deals.

Additional US tariffs on PHARMA imports will impact India. Pharma exports to the US
account for 31% of the total Indian pharma exports. Most Indian pharma exports are
generics & biosimilars, so those prices will go up in the US. Some Indian pharma
companies (Sun Pharma, etc) are also expanding operations in the US. The Indian
pharma sector has sold off.

Vice-President VANCE’s India visit, April 21-24, 2025.

India-China flights were discontinued in 2020 due to pandemic & India-China border
tensions. With the recent geopolitical developments, there is some thaw in the relations
& there are talks now to resume direct India-China flights.

Indian natural gas giant GAIL wants significant financial participation in the US LNG
projects under development. This will also secure the supply of LNG under long-term
contracts. US is already #2 supplier of LNG to India. The natural gas use in India may
rise from 6.2% of total energy now to 15% by 2030.

US Holtec (Founder & CEO Krishna Singh) wants to build nuclear SMRs (small modular
reactors) in India. Holtec SMR-300 produces 300 MW of electric power or 1,050 MW of
thermal power (steam, etc); a mixed electric-thermal power use is also possible. The US
DOE has approved technology sharing among three Indian companies – Larsen &
Tubro, Tata Consulting Engineers & Holtec-Asia. Indian government is also modifying
laws to allow private companies to develop nuclear power.
For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/