By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -11.0% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 10 (extreme fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 37.42% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 40.80% (negative)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 9/30/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.72% (new high), Hybrids 4.09%, Bonds 17.33%, M-Mkt 16.86%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.75-4.00%
FOMC 12/10/25+ cut
FOMC 1/28/26+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.90%, 1-yr 3.62%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.51%, 5-yr 3.62%, 10-yr 4.06%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.71%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.30%, 10-yr 1.82%, 30-yr 2.51%
FRNs Index 3.832%

Bank Rates
www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 11/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 4.75%, RA 4.50%
Flexible RCP 4.00%, SRA 3.75%, IRA-101110+ 3.75%
TSP G Fund 4.125% (previous 4.250%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 49.69 (fear, barely)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -0.76%, INDY -0.39%, EPI -1.21%, INDH +0.66%, SPY -1.92%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ECONOMY

AUTOs. As part of the shift away from China, Japanese auto companies Suzuki (majority owner of Maruti-Suzuki), Honda, Toyota (majority owner of Toyota-Kirloskar) are increasing production in India. For EVs in India, there are collaborations among Maruti-Suzuki-Toyota, Honda-Nissan-Mitsubishi & others. There are also strong domestic auto manufacturers – Tata, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), etc. Globally, India is the 3rd largest auto market by the number of cars sold: #1-China, #2-US, #3 India, #4-Japan, $5-Germany.

AUTOs. Ford/F (US) is returning to India after a gap of 4 years. Its old plant will be retooled for high-tech engine production for exports by 2029. Ford hasn’t revealed any plans for reentry in the Indian car market. Its previous deal was with Mahindra & Mahindra & in 2021, it sold some old car production plants to Tata Motors – it cited lack of profitability & took a large write-off on its Indian operations. Since 09/2021, it has only been importing cars for sale in India & also has servicing operations for its cars sold.

BANKING. German Deutsche Bank (DB) is looking to sell its Indian banking operations. DB has been active in India since 1980s. This looks strange as others are planning to get into India after the recent relaxation of foreign ownerships of Indian financials. In fact, some have dissolved old partnerships to form new partnerships. But competition is tough from domestic & foreign financials as well as from joint-ventures (JVs).

INSURANCE. Canadian Manulife Financial/MFC is entering the Indian insurance market through a joint-venture (JV) with Mahindra & Mahindra. They will focus on insurance needs in rural, semi-urban & urban areas. The companies have previously partnered for investment management since 2020.

HEALTHCARE. BioVaram/UR Advanced Therapeutics & Japanese Teijin are collaborating on regenerative medical products (tissues, patches) & implantable medical devices.

SPACE. French Novaspace (consulting, market intelligence, conferences, newsletters) is entering the Indian space sector. This sector is growing with government-industrial partnerships & international collaborations. Novaspace was formed by the merger of Euroconsult & SpaceTec Partners.

SPECIAL TOPICS – GOLD RESERVES

Indian gold reserves at $100+ billion (880 tonnes or 28.29 million troy oz) were at 29-year high as of 10/10/25. That puts India at #8 (in tonnes of gold held), ahead of Japan, but behind Switzerland; #1-US, #2-Germany. That’s 14.7% of total RBI reserves (in value). Almost 60% of the RBI gold is held in India & 40% is still held overseas (at UK-BOE, Switzerland-BIS, US-NY Fed). Some lower rankings may change slightly if the gold held by IMF, ECB, BIS is included. RBI = Reserve Bank of India (Indian central bank).

It’s estimated that Indian households hold about 30x the gold that’s held in reserves at RBI. Gold has also been among the top performing assets in India because its prices adjust to steadily falling rupee values. But this is also true of other hard assets with more economic benefits such as real estate & stocks (& equity mutual funds & ETFs). Gold isn’t a productive assent & it just removes money from circulation.

India has been gradually bringing back its gold held overseas, but there are logistics considerations (gold is very heavy & requires high security during transportation). Some gold should also be held overseas for transactional convenience in global trade & forex markets. Global central banks have been repatriating gold to bring it home & buying more gold after 2022 Russia-Ukraine war & an aggressive US dollar-diplomacy that followed. Recently, global central bank holdings of gold in current value exceeded that of their US Treasury holdings. Gold held domestically isn’t subject to foreign restrictions, freezes or sanctions.

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