By: Dr K C Gupta

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -21.6% (very low)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 14 (extreme fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 21.65% (oversold)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 21.20% (oversold)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 1/31/26
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.83%, Hybrids 4.01%, Bonds 17.25%, M-Mkt 16.92%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 4/29/26+ hold
FOMC 6/17/26+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.74%, 1-yr 3.80%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.88%, 5-yr 4.01%, 10-yr 4.39%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.96%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.38%, 10-yr 2.01%, 30-yr 2.72%
FRNs Index 3.643%

Bank Rates
www.depositaccounts.com/


Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 3/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 3.30%
TSP G Fund 4.00% (previous 4.250%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 25.99 (extreme fear)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -3.06%, INDY -2.78%, EPI -3.35%, INDH -1.52%, SPY -1.80%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ECONOMY

A new Economic Stabilization Fund (ESF) at $6.2 billion will provide some protection from external economic shocks. Indian economy depends on various imports/exports. In addition, special rules may apply for trade financing & duties/fees during crises. Rules for handling returning-exports due to disruptions have already been changed – previously, those were treated as imports.

CHINA

India-China business relations continue to thaw. Chinese companies can acquire up to 10% of Indian companies without approval & higher minority stakes may get quicker approvals. The new rules are officially for land-border-countries (LBCs; China, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh & Myanmar) in areas of manufacturing of electronic components, capital goods & solar cells, but they are really targeted for China; Pakistan is included as LBC but there is hardly any business or trade relationship with it. India has huge trade deficit with China despite border tensions – exports only $15.9 billion, imports $108.2 billion.

Chinese Hisense (consumer electronics & home appliances) & EPACK Durable have inaugurated a joint-venture (JV) to manufacture room air-conditioners in Sri City, Andhra Pradesh (AP), the cooling capital of India. Carrier-India is expanding its air-conditioning operations on Sri City.
Almost 40% on India’s air-conditioners are manufactured in Sri City, a Southeastern coastal special economic zone (SEZ; also, DTZ, FTWZ) founded in 2008. Due to its industrial nature, population density is low, especially compared to big cities.

PHARMA

Why 47% of US GENERICS in US that come from India are affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure? Lot of pharma APIs from China are consolidated by traders in Middle East & then shipped to India (some come directly from China to India). India imports 40% of its crude oil from Middle East that’s used for energy as well as several pharma ingredients & other petrochemicals (acetaminophen, amoxycillin, glycerin, metformin, metoprolol, statins, etc). Medical supplies are affected too.
Pharma supply-chains still operate with just-in-time-inventories (JITs) because of expiry dates or the requirements cold or cryogenic storages – shipments that are delayed too much may have to be discarded. If many containers are stuck in transit, that may also create container shortages. The global pharma industry has had some prior experiences from the pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war, etc.

INDIA GPS NavIC

Several GEO/GSO-GPS NavIC satellites had Swiss atomic clocks (3 per satellite) that failed prematurely or completed 10-yr lives. This problem was first noted in 2017 but wasn’t addressed aggressively. Moreover, the mandatory use of NavIC GPS in India was pushed. Newer NavIC satellites had indigenous atomic clocks that are also failing prematurely. So, only 3 of 11 NavIC satellites remain functional for GPS after 03/2026 (remaining satellites may still be used for other purposes, but not for GPS). A functioning GPS system requires at least 4 satellites for accurate determinations of latitude, longitude, altitude & clock time.

A 2025 NavIC satellite launch was a failure because it didn’t achieve a geosynchronous orbit. Subsequent launches were delayed due to some PSLV rocket issues (2 failures in other launch applications). There are global/ regional GPS systems (GEO/GSO – BeiDou/ China, QZSS/ Japan, NavIC/ India; MEO – US-GPS, Gelileo/EU, SES, GLONASS/ Russia; LEO – Starlink/ SpaceX, OneWeb/ Eutelsat) that India can tap, but the domestic NavIC GPS system was developed after US denied access to its US-GPS during 1999 India-Pakistan Kargil War.
NavIC = Navigation with Indian Constellation, PSLV = Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle
GEO/GSO = Geostationary/ Geosynchronous (high orbit) earth orbit, MEO = medium earth orbit, LEO = low earth orbit

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