By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -10.7% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 53% (neutral)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 70.10% (overbought, barely)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 60.40% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 7/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.23%, Hybrids 4.14%, Bonds 17.51%, M-Mkt 17.12%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Current 4.25-4.50%
FOMC 9/17/25+ cut
FOMC 10/29/25+ cut

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.07%, 1-yr 3.65%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.51%, 5-yr 3.59%, 10-yr 4.10%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.78%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.17%, 10-yr 1.73%, 30-yr 2.52%
FRNs Index 4.087%
US I-Bonds rate from 5/1/25 – 10/31/25 is 3.98% (previous 3.11%); the fixed rate is 1.10%, the semiannual inflation is 1.43%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 9/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 4.00%
TSP G Fund 4.250% (previous 4.375%)

Weekly ETFs: INDA +0.96%, INDY +0.81%, EPI +1.35%, INDH +1.05%, SPY +0.34%
The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

IT/TECH

OpenAI has entered into R&D, educational & training partnerships with IIT-Madras, Ministry of Education (MoE), All India Council for Technical Education (AICTE), & Association for Reinventing School Education (ARISE; K-12) member schools.

SPECIAL TOPICS

Maruti-Suzuki BEV e-Vitara (eVitara) is being produced in Gujarat, India with an initial focus on exports (including to Japan). It’s an eSUV with 2WD or 4WD & Chinese BYD batteries (for now). The EV platform was codeveloped by Maruti/Suzuki-Toyota-Daihatsu/Toyota. More EV battery components will also be produced in India. It’s the first BEV for Japanese Suzuki that has owned 100% of Maruti-Suzuki since 2007. Early previews were good. The annual production goal of 4 million eVitara seems ambitious & will take time to ramp up.
The domestic versions with fewer features may be launched later after production costs are lower. Types of EVs: BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle, HEV = Hybrid Electric Vehicle, PHEV = Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicle.

Aurobindo Pharma is in talks to buy the generic drug-maker Zentiva (Prague/Czech Republic) from the US private-equity firm Advent International.

Patanjali Ayurveda (traditional medicines, healthcare, foods, cosmetics, education, etc) focuses on green energy, organic farming, biodegradable packaging. Company is also active in rural healthcare & education. There is also Patanjali US.

CME FEDWATCH & INTEREST RATE PROJECTIONS

FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is the US body that sets the federal fund rates (overnight rates). Its rate decisions are implemented through the Fed Open Market Trading Desk of the NY Fed.

FOMC meets 8 times a year. It has 12 voting members – 7 Fed Governors (including the Fed Chair), the NY Fed President & 4 rotating Fed presidents (out of 11 remaining). At one time, the Fed was very secretive & didn’t even announce its rate actions. Bond traders & investors had to guess the FOMC actions from the trading in the fed funds market. But the Fed has become more transparent over the years: it releases FOMC Statements & holds 45-50-minute post-FOMC press conferences.

The Fed rate actions are very important for the economy & the markets, so investors try to guess future fed actions with polls of economists & market strategists & interviews with the experts. These indications are opinion- or survey- based.

CME has developed a tool called CME FedWatch that projects rates based on the trading of fed fund futures. The FOMC meeting dates are known in advance & fed fund futures quotes are also available for future dates. By looking at the fed fund futures quotes before & after each FOMC Meeting, this tool tries to detect possible sudden changes in market rates & estimates the probability of FOMC rate action. So, it’s market-based, not survey- or opinion-based.

The assumption is that the collective wisdom of fed fund traders is captured in the quotes of the fed fund futures. The Tool uses a default change of 25 bps (basis point; 100 bps = 1%) & larger rate changes maybe indicated by multiples of 25 bps. It can produce real-time data during the market days based on the current news, economic data & pronouncements of the FOMC members. Retail investors may check the Tool only occasionally.

The most useful screens of the Tool are “Current” (default screen for the next FOMC Meeting) & “Probabilities” (showing potential actions at several future FOMC Meetings). The Fed itself provides some forward guidance for rates. Recent history has been that by the time of a FOMC Meeting, the Tool is almost in-line with what the FOMC might do. The Fed tries to avoid big rate surprises by modifying its forward guidance well ahead of the quiet periods before the FOMC Meeting.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/