By: Dr K C Gupta

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +10.7% (above average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 45 (neutral-low)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 69.78% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 68.60% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 12/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.36%, Hybrids 4.01%, Bonds 17.32%, M-Mkt 17.31%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 3/18/26+ hold
FOMC 4/29/26+ hold (last FOMC meeting under Fed Chair Powell)

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.68%, 1-yr 3.45%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.50%, 5-yr 3.76%, 10-yr 4.22%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.85%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.26%, 10-yr 1.88%, 30-yr 2.58%
FRNs Index 3.633%

Bank Rates
www.depositaccounts.com/


Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 2/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 3.50%
TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.250%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 40.47 (fear)
Weekly ETFs: INDA +2.98%, INDY +2.82%, EPI +2.77%, INDH +1.36%, SPY -0.20%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

SPECIAL TOPICS

PENSIONS. Indian NPS (National Pension System) pensioners who are NRIs (Non-Resident Indians) or OCI Card (Overseas Citizens of India) holders can use simpler online procedures for KYC (know-your-customer) from where they are. Documents required may be uploaded electronically. Previously, these KYC requirements or changes required physical presence in India. Strict online security protocols will be used to prevent fraud, impersonations, spoofing, etc.

New NPS rules for nongovernment participants allow 80% withdrawal upon retirement for balances above Rs 1.2 million (Rs 12 lakhs); the 20% remainder must be used for annuity (lifetime income). Different rules apply for smaller balances: (i) full withdrawal for balances up to Rs 800K (Rs 8 lakhs) and (ii) partial withdrawal up to Rs 600K (Rs 6 lakhs) for balances between Rs 800K & Rs 1.2 million (Rs 8-12 lakhs).

CRYPTOs. Coinbase/COIN is returning to India after 2 years as global sentiments for cryptos are shifting. It’s a US-based combination crypto exchange, broker-dealer & custodian (3-in-1). In the non-crypto world, these operations are by separate companies or subsidiaries. India has 30% tax on crypto income & levies 1% fee per crypto transaction, so it isn’t crypto-friendly, but global crypto companies are making the moves now & hoping that regulations will be relaxed. Binance & Kraken also have operations in India.
In it’s previous brief attempt for Indian business 2022-23, COIN’s app was blocked from connecting with India payment system UPI, so it withdrew totally from India. This time, it’s approach is gradual & methodical (with regulatory approvals). It has also acquired significant stakes in Indian exchanges CoinDCX (there have been rumors that COIN may acquire it) & CoinSwitch. It will start with a clean slate for retail customers in India (i.e. none carried over from 2023).

INDIA-RUSSIA TRADE. A new solution for huge Indian trade deficit with Russia (using rupee or ruble for bilateral trade) has been floated. The excess rupees that Russia cannot repatriate will be invested in the Indian stock index NIFTY 50 by Russia-based First-India Fund for Russians. The Fund is sponsored by Russian Sberbank & Indian JSC First Asset Management.

Regulatory limitations aren’t clear from media reports, but there are limits on total foreign holdings by Indians & there may be similar limits on total Indian holdings by foreigners. Non-rupee-ruble trades with Russia are in UAE dirham; Russia can also accept Chinese yuan but India has not used that option (in fact, India also has a large trade deficit for China, so it doesn’t have much yuans).

NUCLEAR ENERGY. New SHANTI Act 2025 will allow private companies to own & operate nuclear plants, but the government will maintain control over sensitive nuclear fuel technologies such as fuel enrichment, spent-fuel reprocessing & heavy water production. Only 3.1% of electricity generated by India is from nuclear sources (vs France 67%, US 18%, global 9%).

Several US & foreign companies are getting ready for the Indian market – US Holtec, CCTE, Westinghouse Electric, GE-Hitachi; French EDF, Russian Rosatom, etc. US Holtec makes 300 MW SMRs & it may have potential US IPO & private placements in 2026 that will make it financially ready for entry in India. US CCTE uses thorium-uranium blend for fuel. India is not a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT), so some countries hesitate to collaborate with India; other NPT non-signatories are Israel, Pakistan, S Sudan, N Korea.

Indian companies include Tata Power, Adani Power, Reliance Industries, NTPC (government utility), etc. Under the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC) is developing 55 MW & 200 MW nuclear SMRs (small modular reactors); some are using the term BSRs (Bharat Small Reactors). 

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