Personal finance insights: Market sentiments, investment strategies & economic trends

Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

SENTIMENTS
AAII Bull-Bear Spread -1.5% (below average)
$NYA50R, NYSE %Above 50-dMA 65.34% (positive)
$SPXA50R, SP500 %Above 50-dMA 71.00% (overbought, barely)
Delta MSI 66.4% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative)
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.62%, Hybrids 4.36%, Bonds 17.84%, M-Mkt 17.17%

INTEREST RATES
CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 4.50-4.75%
FOMC 12/18/24+ cut
FOMC 1/29/25+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.58%, 1-yr 4.30%; T-Notes 2-yr 4.13%, 5-yr 4.04%, 10-yr 4.18%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.36%; (all 4.xx%; near flat yield-curve)
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.72%, 10-yr 1.92%, 30-yr 2.15%; (normal upslope)
FRNs Index 4.464%
US Savings I-Bonds rate from 11/1/24 – 4/30/25 is 3.11%%; the fixed rate is 1.20%, the semiannual inflation is 0.9506%.
For current banking rates, see www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 12/1/24
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.50%, RA 5.25%
Flexible RCP 4.75%, SRA 4.50%, IRA-101110+ 4.75%

TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.375%).

Due to publication lag, the data above are as of the Sunday preceding.

MARKETS
The US stock market remains in a BULLISH trend. The dollar has risen, defying expectations. Good seasonality is from November 1 – April 30.

In mid-November, RUSSIA canceled the export license for a Russian company that was supplying enriched uranium to nuclear utilities in the US & elsewhere; this removed 40% of enriched uranium from the global markets. The US nuclear utilities have enough uranium inventory to last for several years (CEG), but this will be a problematic issue. The uranium prices spiked benefiting the uranium miners UEC, CCJ; importer LEU initially fell but then rebounded because it’s developing an enriched uranium facility in the US; ETFs URA, URNM, NLR.

ADANI Group in India is dealing with negative news from the US DOJ & SEC; a couple of years ago, it was negative news from the US short-seller Hindenburg & nothing came out of that after various investigations. According to the SEC & DOJ: (i) Adani Group had ties/dealing with Indian Azure Power that had a US IPO in 2016 as AZRE, got delisted in 2023, & is now on the US Pink Sheets/OTC as AZREF, (ii) Adani Group issued bonds in the US with misleading SEC filings; after this news, it cancelled an upcoming bond issue in the US. Adani Group denied charges but may have to tap the Indian market for funds needed as its sources of foreign funds are drying up. Andhra may also cancel or renegotiate the power deal with Adani Green Energy.

IT/TECH
BLUESKY is a microblogging website that is growing very rapidly as an alternative or supplement to X/Twitter & Threads (Instagram/META). The look & feel are very similar to Twitter – not surprising because Bluesky started out as a project within Twitter, but they have no connection after Elon Musk bought X/Twitter to make it into his playpen. Bluesky doesn’t throttle posts with external links as X/Twitter does.

ECONOMY
INDIA’s quarterly GDP growth of +5.4% was below expectations.
India’s GDP may be ahead of Japan’s by 2025-26. Japan’s global GDP rank has been sliding. It used to be #2 at one time (#1 is the US), but China passed Japan in 2010, Germany in 2023, & India may be next. The top 10 GDP rankings are the US, China, Germany, Japan, India, UK, France, Italy, Canada, Brazil. The picture changes for GDP per capita with the US #6, China #70, India #141.
Rankings by number of BILLIONAIRES: #1-US, #2-China, #3-Germany, #4-India, #5-UK. There is inequality among billionaires too.

RETIREMENT
Trump administration will propose changes for the US HEALTHCARE – possible cuts in ACA/Obamacare (covering 21 million), Medicare (67.7 million) & Medicaid (79.6 million adults & children). Dr Mehmet OZ is the nominee to head the CMS. The insurer-run Medicare Advantage (MA; Part C; 50.5% participation) may be preferred over the government-run Parts B & D that are supplemented by insurer-run Medigap. The reimbursements to MA plans may be increased.

TAXES
Tax loss harvesting (TLH) by retail customers would pick up in December. You can buy something similar but not identical to avoid the wash-sale rule. Options won’t work to replace the underlying stocks or ETFs. The last trading day of 2024 is December 31, Tuesday, & it will have normal hours. It’s the trade date that counts for TLH, not the settlement date (T+1). BTW, time has passed for the double-up & sell by the yearend strategy. A related phenomenon is the January Effect that is the bounce of stocks that suffer from TLH sales in December.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/