By: Dr K C Gupta

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +2.6% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 56 (greed-low)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 58.49% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 62.60% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 10/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.75% (new high), Hybrids 4.05%, Bonds 17.29%, M-Mkt 16.90%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 1/28/26+ hold
FOMC 3/18/26+ cut

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.64%, 1-yr 3.49%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.46%, 5-yr 3.68%, 10-yr 4.14%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.81%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.46%, 10-yr 1.91%, 30-yr 2.60%
FRNs Index 3.592%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 12/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 3.75%
TSP G Fund 4.125% (previous 4.125%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 56.81 (greed)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -0.57%, INDY -0.34%, EPI -0.26%, INDH -0.22%, SPY +1.43%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ECONOMY

Trump $1 million GOLD CARD with $15,000 processing fee for special US visa has launched. Using the current EB-1 & EB-2 program eligibility & quotas (with program & country caps) for wealthy individuals is also raising eyebrows. Program legality & several details are unclear including (i) whether applicants can jump their places in EB-1 or EB-2 queues (if not, the Indian applicants will face long waits), (ii) whether fees are paid upfront, on approval or at Card issuance, (iii) needed documentation for proof & sources of funds.

Corporate Gold Card requires $2 million, but the covered employee can be changed after DHS review & payment of transfer fee.

These programs may eventually replace EB-5 program. Reports on the acceptance of these programs are mixed.

Meanwhile, tougher vetting rules for H-1B visas are being applied to new visas, renewals & passport-stampings (required for re-entry after overseas travel). Several H-1B visa holders who were in India & expected “routine” passport-stampings are now stranded as their appointments have been deferred by months. Their US employers are also scrambling & several have issued H-1B travel advisories.

SPECIAL TOPIC – LONG-TERM CARE INSURANCE (LTCI)

LTCI covers physical assistance at-home & assisted-living facilities or nursing homes. Coverage kicks-in after a period of wait (30-90 days) when criteria for disability can be documented & certified based on the number of ADLs (activities of daily living).

Medicare covers only short post-surgical rehabilitation periods. Medicaid has very strict financial eligibility rules; there is 5-year lookback period for asset gifts & transfers. Medicaid eligible special trusts may be used with advance planning. Several states have Medicaid benefit recovery from the estates of deceased Medicaid patients. Recent cuts in Medicaid will hurt potential LTCI beneficiaries.

Life insurance & LTC hybrids or LTC riders for accelerated death benefits are available. LTC benefits used will reduce the face amount of life policy.

Rich can self-insure & poor can qualify for Medicaid, but people in the middle are stuck. They must reserve dedicated $300K-500K liquid assets to be tapped when their health is declining or buy LTCI when they are in their 50s or early-60s. Later, premiums will be higher, or one can become uninsurable for health reasons. About 3 years of coverage should be enough; benefit durations & amounts are cumulative if there are multiple episodes. There is no point in buying very expensive LTCI plans with many years of coverage (over-insurance). Almost 60% of LTC spending now is through Medicaid & only 40% by private insurers (LCTI).

HSAs can cover LTCI premiums & expenses. SECURE 2.0 allows some LTCI premium payments from retirement plans.

Inflation-adjustments may be offered at much higher incremental rates & may be offered every 3-5 years. If inflation-adjustments are refused in succession, further adjustments may not be offered. So, a strategy may be to accept inflation-adjustments at alternating times until one is sure that higher LTCI coverage isn’t desired.

Some employers offer LTCI as part of their benefit menu at attractive group rates & without conventional medical checkups. After retirement, payroll deductions for LTCI may switch to personal billing.

Few years ago when LTCI were new, many insurers offered them but later found that their underwriting was poor. Healthcare costs are rising at rates much higher than inflation & many new treatments have also become available. State regulators have been reluctant to increase LTCI rates (as well as other insurance rates). So, many insurers withdrew from LTCI – Genworth, MetLife, TIAA, etc (they continue to service existing LTCI). Only a limited number of insurers now offer LTCI – MassMutual, Mutual of Omaha, Nationwide, Northwestern Mutual, NY Life (also via AARP), Thrivent, etc.
For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/