By: Dr K C Gupta

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +14% (above average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 42 (fear-low)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 60.25% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 59.60% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 10/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.75% (new high), Hybrids 4.05%, Bonds 17.29%, M-Mkt 16.90%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 1/28/26+ hold
FOMC 3/18/26+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.63%, 1-yr 3.54%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.52%, 5-yr 3.75%, 10-yr 4.19%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.85%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.43%, 10-yr 1.93%, 30-yr 2.61%
FRNs Index 3.684%

Bank Rates 
www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 12/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 3.75%
TSP G Fund 4.125% (previous 4.125%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 42.25 (fear)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -1.54%, INDY -1.54%, EPI -1.64%, INDH -0.87%, SPY -0.57%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

IT/TECH

Indian AI LLM/chatbot Atomesus is locally developed by former ISRO scientists & it runs entirely on servers based in India (AWS-India). It has multilingual capabilities.

Elon MUSK in India explained why Starlink low-orbit system is more suitable for vast rural areas, not dense urban areas that have cell towers & fiber/cable connectivity. Subscription rates are high. He also noted that his partner, Neuralink executive Shivon ZILIS, is half-Indian & one of their kid’s middle name is SEKHAR.

Byju’s default judgement of $1.07 billion by the US Delaware bankruptcy court has no force in India. There is no automatic legal reciprocity between US & India. In a new trial in India, the US judgement can only be entered as evidence among many others. Moreover, Byju plans to appeal what it claims was a rush default judgment by Delaware court in higher US courts.
As previously reported (1/31/25), Byju’s IT education startup Think & Learn raised lot of capital in US to expand rapidly & got over-extended. Its creditors forced it into bankruptcy, but then they found that money was missing or transferred out secretly to unknown accounts.

SPECIAL TOPIC – SHOULD YOU BUY ANNUITIES?

It depends. If you need annuities, buy basic low-cost annuities. Those with lots of bells & whistles have high expenses & pay high commissions to selling agents. If your workplace 401k/403b plan provider is an insurer, your plan may include qualified annuities & watch their expenses.

Annuities are complex products sold by insurers through prospectuses (100-250 pages). Request a copy of prospectus early & verify talking points by your agent. Guarantees are from insurers, so check their credit ratings. There may be surrender periods (5-7 years) with penalties.

Fixed accumulation annuities can offer higher rates because your money is tied up until the age of 59.5 although changes in vendors are possible through 1035 exchanges. Both fixed & variable annuities have tax-deferred growth, but RMDs aren’t required for nonqualified (after-tax) annuities.

Payout annuities can offer higher payouts due to risk pooling & because a portion of the payout is your initial principal. You have to give up your principal but there may be survivor benefits or beneficiary options. For investors without pensions, these can provide guaranteed lifetime income to cover basic expenses. Some annuities have guaranteed income riders that would keep paying even if the account is exhausted. Participating annuity payouts include base plus bonus payouts (e.g. TIAA Traditional). Taxes depend on whether pre-tax (qualified) or after-tax (nonqualified) money were used to buy annuity.

Survivor benefits may be 100%, 75% or 50% to survivor (either annuitant) or 2nd annuitant (if there is one). Beneficiaries only get death benefits (optional) or residual benefits under guaranteed periods (10, 15 or 20 years; must be less than the life-expectancy of single or joint annuitants).

Guaranteed lifetime income (or, annuitization) options at retirement have been available for 403b for many years but only recently for 401k. Spouses are treated as 2nd annuitant with 50-100% lifetime benefits in QJSA or ERISA plans unless spousal waiver is obtained.

Variable-annuities (VA) are portfolios of stocks, bonds & alternatives within the annuity wrapper. VA payouts are in units with prices determined by total returns (TRs) relative to threshold AIRs (assumed interest rates; 2-5%).

There is a huge variety of annuities: SPIAs (immediate-income; most basic & cheapest), DIAs (deferred-income; note news on Bonilla Day, July 1), FIAs (fixed-indexed), MYGAs (multiyear-fixed; alternatives to CDs), VAs, VAs with income-riders (GMWB), RILAs (index-linked with caps & buffers; most popular now), etc.

Qualified longevity annuity contracts (QLACs) are allowed for limited amounts from IRA/401k/403b; these are deferred-income annuities & the amounts used are exempt from RMDs.
For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/