By: Dr K C Gupta

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +13.5% (above average; big change)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 40 (fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 54.99% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 55.00% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 10/31/25

OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.75% (new high), Hybrids 4.05%, Bonds 17.29%, M-Mkt 16.90%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.75-4.00%
FOMC 12/10/25+ cut
FOMC 1/28/26+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.71%, 1-yr 3.61%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.56%, 5-yr 3.72%, 10-yr 4.14%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.79%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.38%, 10-yr 1.88%, 30-yr 2.57%
FRNs Index 3.760%

Bank Rates 
www.depositaccounts.com/


Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 12/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 3.75%
TSP G Fund 4.125% (previous 4.125%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 62.15 (greed)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -1.35%, INDY -1.19%, EPI -1.46%, INDH -0.77%, SPY +0.34%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

FINANCIAL SECTOR

RBI cut rates to 5.25%. Rupee fell through 90 vs dollar.

Indian securities regulator SEBI made it easy to gift mutual funds to family & friends. There may be tax advantages as some gifts to family members may not be taxed, or taxed at lower rate.

Recent Barron’s “International Trader” column cautioned about INDIAN IPO FRENZY. Huge 1st day runups are common. Some IPOs have been at deep discounts from their most recent private-market valuations, but private investors seem anxious to get out at any price. Previous IPO rush from 2020-21 ended badly by 2023-24.

GLOBAL ETFs in India trade at huge premiums because of regulatory cap on ETF creation units ($7 billion since 2022). Those premiums may vanish overnight with a regulatory stroke of pen. With the creation process suspended, those ETFs have effectively become CEFs (closed-end funds). Buy similar mutual funds instead.

Indian rupee-backed private ARC STABLECOIN will serve as a consumer interface with the background settlement through RBI Rupee CBDC. The backing collateral will consist of T-Bills (Indian), government securities & fixed deposits. Companies involved are blockchain company Polygon & fintech Anq. The rollout is expected in 2026/Q1. ARC = Asset Reserve Certificate.

SPECIAL TOPIC – UPI REAL-TIME PAYMENTS

India is going global with its UPI (United Payments Interface) payment system.

UPI is a direct, real-time interface among participating banks & nonbank financials (credit card, ATM, app & fintech companies) using customers’ UPI IDs & linked mobile phone numbers. Interoperability among participating institutions & users is the key. In some ways, the experience is similar to Zelle payments in US but internal mechanisms are quite different – Zelle uses the US ACH network, while UPI uses the NPCI (National Payments Corporation of India) infrastructure.

Notably, (i) UPI doesn’t hold funds (as Venmo, PayPal, Google Pay, etc do) or transaction information (except for scheduled future payments), (ii) entering bank & account information are not required for transactions – those remains hidden in the background for users, (iii) there are real-time verifications of payor & payee information & the transactions are processed in real-time when all verifications are OK; both payor & payee get confirmations, (iv) the end-users don’t see any fees (merchants may be charged small transaction fees; benefits to participating institutions are also indirect – more transactions & information about client behaviors). Multilingual voice recognition is also available. There are stringent fraud controls.

UPI-push is a payment transaction initiated by a payor to a payee; beyond the 2FA code, there shouldn’t be any further request for “approval”. UPI-pull is a payment request & the recipient of the request must login to “approve” the payment. To eliminate spammers & user confusion, UPI-pull was suspended for P2P (person-to-person) transactions on 10/1/25, but it’s still available for B2P (business-to-person) & B2B. Beware that fraudsters may hide UPI pull-approval button under some other pretexts, so don’t click on any unexpected “approval” requests to pay or receive money.

There are many UPI-enabled apps; NPCI UPI app is BHIM. Several apps available in US are UPI-enabled (Google Pay, Wise, etc) to link eligible accounts; in UK, Revolut Visa. Also check with the Indian bank with your NRO/NRE account about using its app for UPI (ICICI iMobile, SBI YONO & YFEI, etc).

Several countries that have their own real-time payment systems can sign up for UPI linkups through their central banks (e.g. European TIPS, BRICS Pay). Other countries must have national & institutional level agreements for using UPI. BIS, IMF, Kansas City Fed, etc have published reports on the success of Indian UPI. US is still experimenting with its real-time FedNOW.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/