By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -12.4% (low; large decline)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 27 (fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 41.92% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 45.60% (negative)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 8/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.38%, Hybrids 4.13%, Bonds 17.45%, M-Mkt 17.05%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 4.00-4.25%
FOMC 10/29/25+ cut
FOMC 12/10/25+ cut

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.00%, 1-yr 3.56%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.46%, 5-yr 3.59%, 10-yr 4.02%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.60%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.30%, 10-yr 1.75%, 30-yr 2.40%
FRNs Index 3.883%

Bank Rates
www.depositaccounts.com/


Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 10/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 4.00%
TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.250%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 69.61 (greed, almost extreme greed)
Weekly ETFs: INDA +3.18%, INDY +3.29%, EPI +2.90%, INDH +2.52%, SPY +1.74%
The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

IT/TECH

Indian company Nav Wireless Technologies demonstrated first commercial Li-Fi (light-fi or optical-fi) in NYC.

Tata Consulting Services (TCS) is boosting its global IT-AI capabilities. It has also acquired ListEngage (US) for AI-agents capability.

Graphcore (UK)/SoftBank (Japan) is starting a semi chips R&D center in India to focus on silicon logical design, physical design, verification, characterization & bring-up. SoftBank is also involved in $500 billion US Stargate infrastructure project in partnership with OpenAI & Oracle/ORCL.

Datacenter capacity in India is rapidly growing from 1.2 GW (10/2025) to possibly 3 GW in 5 years. Demand is from enterprises (60%), AI hyperscalers (30%) & AI users (10%); that may change in a few years to enterprises 40-45%, hyperscalers 35% & AI users 20-25%. There is interest from Alphabet/GOOGL (US), Amazon (US), OpenAI (US), Equinix/EQIX (US), NTT (Japan), STT GDC/Temasek (Singapore) as well as from Indian companies Adani Group, Reliance Industries, CtrlS, Nxtra/Airtel, etc. However, several US tech firms have paused their datacenter developments in India due to pending US-India trade negotiations, high US tariffs (50%) on goods, high H-1B visa fees & potential problems in importing advanced semi chips.

SPECIAL TOPICS

RENTING vs BUYING HOME
An important decision that many younger families face is whether to continue renting or buy a home.

Monthly rentals can be seen as sunk money as there are no residual benefits from renting. Apartments may have annual leases, but month-to-month rental may be possible in some situations. In some areas, most leases start in Summer/Fall. Credit check & cosigner may be required for leasing. Review credit reports ahead of major financial events & write to credit bureaus & former lenders to fix any errors or misinformation. A refundable deposit may be required, typically 1-2 months of rent.

Lease is a contract that obligates the lease the pay for the entire period. If breaking/ terminating lease early isn’t possible, then sublease or sublet for the remainder of the term is an option.

It may be possible to temporarily rent with an intent to buy the same condo or house in slow housing markets.

New homebuyers can aim for costs roughly comparable to renting, but owning a home isn’t all about costs. There is more freedom & a better quality of life, especially with kids (childcare, play areas, schools). There may also be unexpected expenses – things may clog or breakdown & you cannot just call the landlord.

You will initially need up to 20% down payment for mortgage without PMI; if you have PMI, make sure that your lender removes PMI after you accumulate 20%+ home equity. If you plan to borrow some of the down payment from family or friends, do that well ahead of credit checks by banks or mortgage companies. There will be closing costs – fees, title insurance, mortgage points, proof of home insurance.

Monthly costs will include mortgage payments, possible PMI, home insurance (may be monthly or semiannual/ annual), mortgage/ life insurance (more expensive than regular life insurance), property taxes (may be monthly to the lender or semiannual directly), utility bills. Irregular costs will be for furnishings, renovations & a lot of maintenance.

If buying a condo, or home in special communities, there will be additional monthly homeowner associations (HOA) assessments & you will have to observe HOA rules.

Owning to rent has different considerations because it’s a small business. There will be higher mortgage rates, the headaches of being a landlord, & whether to handle property & tenant issues DIY or through a property management company that may charge up to 2 months’ rent as fees.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/