By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -5.8% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 33 (fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 52.79% (positive)?% ()
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 53.00% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 8/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.38%, Hybrids 4.13%, Bonds 17.45%, M-Mkt 17.05%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 4.00-4.25%
FOMC 10/29/25+ cut
FOMC 12/10/25+ cut

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.93%, 1-yr 3.58%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.48%, 5-yr 3.61%, 10-yr 4.02%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.59%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.21%, 10-yr 1.73%, 30-yr 2.37%
FRNs Index 3.847%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 10/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 4.00%
TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.250%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 76.06 (extreme greed)
Weekly ETFs: INDA +0.11%, INDY +0.24%, EPI +0.48%, INDH -0.18%, SPY +1.94%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ECONOMY

New US sanctions on Russian Rosneft & Lukoil & their subsidiaries (effective 11/21/25) will impact Indian oil purchases from Russia. Affected will be state-run Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum & private refiners Reliance Industries, HPCL-Mittal Energy, ONGC, etc. Nayara (50% owned by Rosneft) is already having problems due to EU sanctions.

IT/TECH

L&T Electronics (Larsen & Toubro) & Hon Young Semiconductor/Foxconn (Taiwanese semi chips contract manufacture) will collaborate on developing high-voltage semiconductor wafers for automotive & industrial applications in India. Chips will be manufactured in Taiwan, but R&D & testing will be in India.

Tata’s Titan Engineering & Automation has acquired Chinese Justech Precision – India. Justech supplies CNC machines, etc to Foxconn, an Apple supplier. Earlier this year, Tata Electronics bought 60% of Taiwanese contract manufacturer Pagatron – India; & in 2023, it bought Winstron Infocomm Manufacturing – India (a JV of parents in Taiwan & Singapore).

Ingka Investments/IKEA buys logistics-tech startup Locus with HQ in US, but it was founded in India in 2015.

FUNDS

US investment banking firm Jefferies/JEF that specializes in M&A (mergers & acquisitions) will enter the mutual fund business in India. Notably, Jefferies doesn’t have any mutual fund business elsewhere, & in India, it will face stiff competition from both Indian & foreign (including US) fund firms. Jefferies was recently fined for alleged manipulations in the Indian options market & it’s fighting charges in the court.

SPECIAL TOPICS

US big pharma Eli Lilly/LLY is expanding manufacturing capacity in India. Note that US 100% tariffs apply to branded drugs, not generics manufactured by many Indian Pharma.

India-based California Burrito founded by an American Burt Mueller. He was in India for a semester under study abroad program & got the idea of starting a Mexican food chain in India.

I-BONDS & SOCIAL SECURITY

September CPI released late on 10/24/25 determined two important things.

I-BOND VARIABLE RATE

US Savings I-Bonds have the current rate that is a combination of base/fixed rate & recent semiannual inflation rate (CPI-U, unadjusted; March-September-March). Rates change on May 1 & November 1 & remain valid for the next 6 months. The personal limit is $10K. Buyer cannot cash I-Bonds within 12 months; there is 3-month interest penalty if cashed within 5 years. The tax can be deferred until redeemed. They stop earning interest in 30 years. Buy late in the month, or sell early in the month, to get full month interest. Account must be opened at Treasury Direct.

Formula for composite rate = [fixed rate + (2 x semiannual inflation rate) + (fixed rate x semiannual inflation rate)]

I-Bond variable-rate from November 1 is 3.12% (semiannual inflation 1.56%). Treasury will announce the new total rate (fixed + variable) on 11/1/25.

SOCIAL SECURITY PAYOUT INCREASE

Many retirees depend on Social Security. They can start collecting benefits early at age 62 with penalties or delay benefits up to age 70 with bonuses. The full retirement age (FRA) is between 66-67 based on the date of birth. Make decision on when to take Social Security based on your personal financial situation, not on alarmist media news on the demise of Social Security. Some fixes will be found by the time the SSA IOUs at Treasury run out (sorry, there is no dedicated SSA fund) & sharp benefit cuts are auto-triggered.

The annual adjustments to Social Security payments are based on y-o-y increases in the Q3 averages of CPI-W readings for July, August, September.

Social Security COLA for 2026 is +2.8%. The wage-cap increased by higher wage inflation to +4.77%.

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