By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +2.5% (below average; bipolar)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 53 (neutral)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 61.70% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 56.40% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 7/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.23%, Hybrids 4.14%, Bonds 17.51%, M-Mkt 17.12%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 4.00-4.25%
FOMC 10/29/25+ cut
FOMC 12/10/25+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.02%, 1-yr 3.67%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.63%, 5-yr 3.76%, 10-yr 4.20%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.77%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.34%, 10-yr 1.82%, 30-yr 2.51%
FRNs Index 3.898%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 9/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 4.00%
TSP G Fund 4.250% (previous 4.375%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 56.8 (greed)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -3.13%, INDY -2.59%, EPI -3.09%, INDH -2.21%, SPY -0.28%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

MARKETS

IT/TECH

US digital infrastructure company Equinox/EQIX has added a datacenter in Chennai & connected it to its datacenter in Mumbai.

ECONOMY

Interesting H-1B alternatives are L-1 & O-1 visas for intracompany company transfers. Their fees are high but nowhere close to H-1B fees now. Many US companies have operations in India & those may serve as initial points. Of course, another Executive Order may spoil it.

SPECIAL TOPICS

US Blackstone/BX is to acquire Zelestra-India renewable energy business from Swedish EQT Group.

US has included India among the countries that pass-through opioid fentanyl precursors even though India doesn’t export fentanyl. India does produce fentanyl for medical uses as it’s a potent synthetic opioid painkiller (analgesic) & anesthetic. Most active pharma ingredients (APIs) come from China & India & they are used to make brand name & generic drugs as well as some illicit drugs. So, precursors of fentanyl may come from China or India, flow through global supply-chains & end up in Mexico where fentanyl is produced & smuggled into US.
Efforts to control fentanyl in Mexico & US have had limited successes, so a recent US push has been to control the flow of fentanyl precursors. One problem is that APIs have multiple uses, so some global approach to restrict certain APIs may work.

TAX-LOSS HARVESTING (TLH), OCTOBER 2025
It’s never too late to plan for TLH.

Funds are allowed to close their books for the year in OCTOBER so that they can timely announce yearend fund distributions (capital gains (CGs) & income) in November/December for fund investors to plan.

Funds tidy up their portfolios for annual reports by replacing losers with winners (window-dressing) or do the fund TLH to reduce CG distributions. Many funds now have substantial retirement assets where CG distributions don’t matter & their portfolio managers may claim to ignore this TLH aspect. Retail investors can take advantage of the market weakness in October to do some TLH.

It is easily possible to sell & simultaneously buy something SIMILAR BUT NOT IDENTICAL. For stocks, comparable stocks (this may be tricky) in the industry or sector ETFs may be used. For OEFs & ETFs, it’s easy to find ETFs for TLH swaps as there are so many similar ETFs. However, related options & other classes of funds (e.g. Vanguard indexed OEF & ETF) cannot be used for this purpose.

Another strategy is to DOUBLE-UP a candidate & then sell the older lot after 30 days (between purchase & sale) to avoid wash-sale. The wash-sale rule applies across all of your accounts, so, your broker may not flag a wash-sale involving accounts at other brokerages, but the IRS will on any audit. The last day to DOUBLE-UP & sell the older lot by the yearend is Monday, 12/1/25. With commission-free trading, this practice is less popular now. If you are reinvesting distributions, you may want to turn reinvestments off to avoid nuisance wash-sales that may apply to tiny lots. Note that wash-sale only defers the disallowed loss because it’s added (by brokers) to the cost-basis of the remaining position.

Tax losses are used to offset capital gains first, then up to $3,000 in ordinary income, & the remaining tax losses can be carried over to future years. In a bad year, if you book lot of tax losses, then your taxable account essentially becomes a tax-free account until the old tax losses are exhausted.

For more information, see ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/