By: Dr K C Gupta

SENTIMENTS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -11.3% (low)
$NYA50R, NYSE %Above 50-dMA 48.80% (negative)
$SPXA50R, SP500 %Above 50-dMA 53.20% (positive)
Delta MSI 50.7% (positive, barely)
ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative)
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 60.54%, Hybrids 4.24%, Bonds 17.58%, M-Mkt 17.64%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 4.25-4.50%
FOMC 3/19/25+ hold
FOMC 5/7/25+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.32%, 1-yr 4.15%; T-Notes 2-yr 4.19%, 5-yr 4.26%, 10-yr 4.42%; T-Bonds
30-yr 4.67%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.65%, 10-yr 2.00%, 30-yr 2.35%
FRNs Index 4.271%
US Savings I-Bonds, Rate from 5/1/24 – 10/31/24 is 4.28%; the fixed rate is 1.30%, the
semiannual inflation is 1.48%.
For current banking rates, see www.depositaccounts.com/
Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 2/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.50%, RA 5.25%
Flexible RCP 4.75%, SRA 4.50%, IRA-101110+ 4.75%
TSP G Fund 4.625 (previous 4.625%).
Due to publication lag, the data above are as of the Sunday preceding.

MARKETS

Indian stocks are in a correction (-12.4% drop from late-09/2024 high); the US investors in India funds have suffered more (-15.4%) due to rupee devaluation. Stock ownership represents partial ownership of businesses & that should keep up with inflation & currency depreciations.
So, the Indian stock market rally to late-09/2024 has been eye-catching in nominal terms, but not in real terms. Not surprisingly, gold in rupees has done well too.
Top 10 countries by stock market-cap: US, China, Japan, INDIA, Canada, France, UK, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Taiwan.

IT/TECH

US AST SpaceMobile/ASTS provides SATELLITE mobile service in the US via regular smartphones. Its partners for direct-to-smartphones include T, VZ, VOD (UK). Consumers may have to pay additional fees for satellite services. ASTS satellites are bigger, so fewer will be needed, & it plans to use SpaceX, Blue Origin or ISRO (India) for launches. Huge subscriber growth will be needed to achieve profitability. Competing partnerships in the US are SpaceX & TMUS, AAPL & GSAT (emergency use). After the recent MODI-MUSK meeting in DC, plans are progressing for Starlink (US SpaceX) satellite phone services & Tesla EV (US) showrooms in India. However, OneWeb (UK, France) & Airtel (India) may start offering satellite mobile services in India before Starlink. The cheapest delivered price for Tesla in India may be $40,000+ (35+ lakhs) & it may not hurt the local EVs.

The Indian EV manufacturers include Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, etc, & they are planning special promotions.

ECONOMY

India will be affected by the US general TARIFFS & reciprocal tariffs. After the recent MODI- TRUMP meeting in DC, there would be push to increase bilateral trade & increase Indian purchases of US oil/gas & defense equipment. But India may also be interested in technology transfers along with the defense equipment purchases & that would require deeper negotiations beyond press releases.

A potentially big trade deal may be for the US LNG exports to India. The US has excess natural- gas, so it’s very cheap in the US compared to its global or European spot prices. The US is building new LNG terminals for LNG exports. The delivered price of the US LNG to India may be quite reasonable under long-term contracts. India may also need more LNG terminals.

RETIREMENT

Elon MUSK’s DOGE is going after Medicare. The plan may be to privatize Medicare, i.e.
Medicare Advantage (MA) default for all new participants; the existing traditional Medicare participants (Parts B, D & private Medigap) may be grandfathered. It’s hard to go back from MA to traditional Medicare in many states as medical underwriting for Medigap may be required.
Advance planning is necessary as the premiums (including IRMAA) depend on income 2 years prior; limited Roth conversions may help (tradeoff is current tax liability vs no RMDs or no taxes on withdrawals in future). Keep in mind that even at the highest IRMAA levels, there is some subsidy.

SPECIAL TOPICS

ADANI HEALTH CITY (AHC; nonprofit) & Mayo Clinic (US) have partnered to develop several affordable integrated hospitals, clinics & medical college campuses in India. The Adani family & foundation(s) will provide the funding & Mayo Clinic will provide consulting services. The initial launches will be in Ahmedabad & Mumbai & will be expanded later to other cities.
For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/