By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -17.5% (very low)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 22 (extreme fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 41.60% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 43.60% (negative)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 9/30/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.72% (new high), Hybrids 4.09%, Bonds 17.33%, M-Mkt 16.86%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.75-4.00%
FOMC 12/10/25+ hold
FOMC 1/28/26+ cut

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.95%, 1-yr 3.70%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.62%, 5-yr 3.74%, 10-yr 4.14%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.74%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.36%, 10-yr 1.86%, 30-yr 2.51%
FRNs Index 3.8165%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 11/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 4.75%, RA 4.50%
Flexible RCP 4.00%, SRA 3.75%, IRA-101110+ 3.75%
TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.250%).

India Fear & Greed MMI 56.91 (greed)
Weekly ETFs: INDA +1.62%, INDY +1.83%, EPI +1.49%, INDH +1.76%, SPY +0.14%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ECONOMY

The longest US government shutdown finally ended (10/1/25 – 11/12/25) but the main issues that caused it remained outstanding.

UK sanctions on Russian oil follow those from EU & US. These will affect Russian-controlled Nayara (India) – it’s focusing on domestic market & exploring exports to non-EU/US/UK markets. Reliance Industries & Indian Oil corporation (IOC) may also be impacted.

FUNDS

US State Street/STT is looking for an Indian partner to launch mutual funds & ETFs in India. In US, it offers SP500 SPY, SPLG; gold GLD, GLDM, etc.

SPECIAL TOPICS

MEDICAL TOURISM in India is growing. High-quality medical treatment, care & rehabilitation in India are much cheaper than those in US. Procedures can range from transplants, surgeries (including eyes/dental), conventional (Western) & unconventional (Eastern/ Ayurveda) treatments to cosmetic procedures. The related costs of travel, stay in hotels or Airbnb-type rentals & other expenses are also modest.
Special Med-visa are available for patients & Med-X-visa for up to 2 attending family members &/or caregivers. There may be some inconveniences arising from local infrastructure issues. Beware that US health insurance won’t typically cover procedures outside of US (unless preapproved), so this may be an option for those uninsured or underinsured. Medical tourism is also flourishing in other Asia countries.

ROTH CONVERSION

Roth Conversion is the process of converting Traditional IRA (TIRA) into Roth IRA (RIRA), or converting 401k/403b into Roth 401k/403b. It’s a taxable event. The tax can be withheld (& that reduces the amount going into RIRA) or paid from a taxable account (preferred).

TIRA contributions may be deductible (pre-tax) with eligibility requirements, or large amounts of pre-tax money in 401k/403b may be rolled over on job changes into TIRA without tax implications. There is tax-deferred growth within TIRA. However, when the money is withdrawn in retirement (after 59.5), it’s taxable. TIRA is subject to RMDs at 73+. Rules for 401k/403b are similar although the RMD consolidation rules don’t apply to 401k.

RMDs for all TIRAs can be added (i.e. consolidated) & the total amount can be taken from any of the TIRAs; the same can be done for 403b. This RMD consolidation rule doesn’t apply to 401k & appropriate RMDs must be taken from each 401k.

When the TIRA is subject to RMDs, the first withdrawals are assumed to be RMDs. So, do Roth Conversion after taking all required RMDs. Otherwise, serious complications may arise. The RMDs cannot go into RIRA.

RIRA contributions are after-tax, there is tax-deferred growth, but withdrawals in retirement (59.5+) are tax-free for any purpose, so many use RIRAs to supplement education 529. RMDs don’t apply. RMD rules for Roth 401k/403b were made similar in 2024 & that eliminated the urgent need to convert Roth 401k/403b into RIRA.

Roth Conversion should be done gradually in stages so that the higher taxable income doesn’t put one into a higher tax bracket. Roth Conversion for the year must be completed by December 31. Retirees should also watch for IRMAA thresholds for Medicare premiums 2 years out.

Converting 401k/403b into RIRA in 1-step may lead to complications if the plan withholds taxes. In that case, use a 2-step procedure, 401k/403b to TIRA (without tax implications), then TIRA to RIRA (taxable event, but there is choice about paying tax from taxable account or use tax withholding).

Inherited IRAs now require emptying the account within 10 years for most nonspousal beneficiaries. So, the old estate angle of stretch for younger beneficiaries is no longer available. Spousal beneficiaries have the most flexibility including redesignating the Inherited IRA as their own. Beneficiary rules for Inherited IRAs are very complicated now, so be sure to study them or consult a tax professional.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/