By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +7.1% (above average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 35 (fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 39.80% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 41% (negative)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 9/30/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.72% (new high), Hybrids 4.09%, Bonds 17.33%, M-Mkt 16.86%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.75-4.00%
FOMC 12/10/25+ cut
FOMC 1/28/26+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.89%, 1-yr 3.70%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.60%, 5-yr 3.71%, 10-yr 4.11%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.67%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.31%, 10-yr 1.81%, 30-yr 2.44%
FRNs Index 3.766%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 11/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 4.75%, RA 4.50%
Flexible RCP 4.00%, SRA 3.75%, IRA-101110+ 3.75%
TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.250%).

India Fear & Greed MMI 68.69 (greed; almost extreme greed)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -0.99%, INDY -0.86%, EPI -0.35%, INDH +0.34%, SPY +0.71%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

IT/TECH

Otter Controls, India opened a new facility in Pune to produce electrical & electronics products for automotive, railway & other industries. Company is a joint venture with Otter Group (UK).

ECONOMY

US-China trade truce was reached for 1 yr. US-India defense cooperation agreements were signed. Next may be US-India trade deal.

Indian industries hard hit by 50% US tariffs so far include textile, gems & jewelry, furniture, leather, handicrafts, etc. Orders are received months in advance of deliveries, so cancelled or postponed orders have resulted in higher inventories & production cuts. Many of these industries expanded capacity for US exports, & without those, the domestic demand cannot absorb the excess production.

Rules for foreign ownership of Indian banks & financials have been relaxed in recent years. Several big financial deals:
Emirates NBD bank (ENBD, Dubai/UAE) is buying 60% stake in Indian RBL bank. ENBD will buy additional shares in the open market to reach a maximum 74% for foreign ownership. Notably, India often uses UAE’s dirham for oil imports. Interestingly, until 1966, precursors of UAE (1971- ) used Indian rupee or Gulf rupee (tied to Indian rupee) as their national currency;

US Blackstone/BX will buy 9.9% stake in Indian Federal Bank. India has banks named “Federal Bank” & “Central Bank”, etc but its official central bank is Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

US Blackstone/BX has bought a majority stake in Ace Insurance broker (life, general, reinsurance). The new investment will be used to upgrade Ace’s technology infrastructure & expansion into the global markets.

SPECIAL TOPICS

Hollywood studios (Amazon MGM, Warner Bros, Universal/Comcast) are buying stakes in Bollywood studios & Indian theater chains to better manage coordinated theater & streaming releases.

A textile Recycling MOU has been signed by Filatex (Indian processor), Revti (Indian aggregator) & US Wastewear (US & international aggregator).

QCDs from TIRAs

There are several ways to make charitable contributions – direct from taxable accounts, from DAFs & as QCDs (Qualified Charitable Distributions) from Traditional IRAs (TIRAs).

QCDs can be made only from TIRA, not from workplace 401k/403b (but those can be rolled-over/ direct-transferred to TIRA).

QCDs can be made after 70.5 & that is 2.5 years before RMDs start now. The annual limit is inflation-adjusted ($108K in 2025; 2x for couples).

After Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) start at 73, the QCDs count as RMDs up to the QCD limit. QCD can also be more than RMD, but the excess cannot be applied to next year’s RMD. QCDs reduce future RMDs & may avoid Medicare Part B IRMAA (Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount) triggers.

QCDs don’t flow through 1040 income & don’t require itemized Schedule A for deduction. They can be made by both itemizers & non-itemizers. So, they are clearly better than charitable contributions from taxable accounts or from withdrawals taken from TIRAs.

QCDs must go directly from the IRA sponsor to charities although IRA checkbook may be used (technically, money doesn’t flow through your hands). Make QCD well ahead of the yearend so that the donation is completed by the yearend (sent by sponsor, received by charity & acknowledged).

QCDs cannot go into DAFs (Donor-Advised Funds).

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/