By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +3.7% (below average; bipolar)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 54 (neutral)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 62.27% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 61.40% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 8/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.38%, Hybrids 4.13%, Bonds 17.45%, M-Mkt 17.05%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 4.00-4.25%
FOMC 10/29/25+ cut
FOMC 12/10/25+ cut

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.03%, 1-yr 3.64%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.58%, 5-yr 3.72%, 10-yr 4.13%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.71%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.34%, 10-yr 1.80%, 30-yr 2.48%
FRNs Index 3.898%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 10/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 4.00%
TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.250%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 58.18 (greed)
Weekly ETFs: INDA +0.38%, INDY +0.04%, EPI +0.63%, INDH +0.24%, SPY +1.12%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ECONOMY

New H-1B fees ($100K) are one-time, 9/21/25 – 9/21/26 (may be extended). They are not per year, don’t apply at renewals, don’t affect holders on foreign travel & may even benefit recently laid off H-1B visa holders.

Global Capability Centers (GCCs) by multinationals in India may get a boost from new H-1B fees. GCCs have advanced capabilities for R&D, IT, analytics, HR – much more than the old call centers. Some are dedicated, others serve multiple companies. There are government incentives. Limited movement of people can be under H-1, or intracompany transfer L-1, O-1 visas.

Many Indian owned/ controlled businesses in Asia, Middle East & Europe may boost production for export to the US. Rules against product transshipments & relabeling won’t apply with sufficient localization.

Indian jewelry industry found a loophole to avoid 50% US tariffs – import raw materials or semi-finished products from US & export the finished products back to US. Then, a US tariff exception applies.

Some countries have just slashed the declared US Customs & Border Protection (CBP) value to 33-50%. CBP staff is overworked or poorly trained to detect this.

100% branded pharma tariffs don’t apply to generics.

The new US Gold Card (immigrant visa) requires $1 million by individuals ($2 million by companies on behalf of individuals). There may be potential challenges to the program by Congress or courts despite Administration’s tweaking of lot of existing immigration rules (EB-1, EB-2) to launch it.

SPECIAL TOPICS

REAL ESTATE COMMISSIONS

News about big changes in real estate commissions made a big splash last year.

Recall that NAR (National Association of Realtors) was fined over its control of MLS (multiple listing services) that favored NAR members. It also had guidelines on real estate commissions that were determined to be anticompetitive.

Well, more than a year after settlements & fines, nothing much has changed. The overall level of real estate commissions is basically the same.

However, there is more awareness & transparency about commissions by buyers’ & sellers’ agents. Buyers’ agents are more common now, while they were rare/ ad-hoc before & were at the mercy of sellers’ agents (or broker) when it came to splitting commissions. Agreements have to be signed beforehand by disclosing the commissions to be paid. Buyers or sellers have to wait until the end of the agreements to switch, so it’s better to sign shorter-term agreements that can be renewed.

Some sellers offer to cover buyers’ agent commissions (in full or up to a cap) as sale incentives. This may be a reason why the total commissions for real estate transactions haven’t fallen. When both sellers & buyers face 2.5-3.0% commissions (rather than seller facing 5-6% commission before), they both find it acceptable, & if the seller has to cover buyer agent’s 2.5-3.0% to close the deal quicker, the seller may think of it as sale incentive similar to others (discounts, buydown mortgage, etc).

Buyers typically don’t shop for agents. As real estate brokers don’t publish their commission schedules, it’s not easy to shop around. Buyers may even be wary of low commissions worrying about poor services or problem brokers.

VA (Department of Veterans Affairs) loans now allow up to 4% sellers’ concessions that may or may not include buyers’ agent commissions. VA will pay reasonable & customary buyers’ agent commissions.

Real estate (RE) brokerage industry is rapidly consolidating. Compass (brands Compass, Christie’s, etc) is acquiring Anywhere Real Estate (brands Century 21, Sotheby’s, Coldwell Banker, etc) & the combo will have 18% market share. Mortgage company Rocket acquired RE brokerage Redfin & mortgage servicer Mr Cooper Group in what is seen as a vertical integration. The industry is highly fragmented with 100,000 firms.

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