By: Dr K C Gupta

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -2.4% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 27 (fear-high)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 42.97% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 45.40% (negative)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 1/31/26
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.83%, Hybrids 4.01%, Bonds 17.25%, M-Mkt 16.92%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.50-3.75%
FOMC 3/18/26+ hold
FOMC 4/29/26+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.69%, 1-yr 3.55%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.56%, 5-yr 3.72%, 10-yr 4.15%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.77%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.16%, 10-yr 1.80%, 30-yr 2.54%
FRNs Index 3.643%

Bank Rates 
www.depositaccounts.com/


Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 3/1/26
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 3.30%
TSP G Fund 4.00% (previous 4.250%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 28.21 (extreme fear)
Weekly ETFs: INDA -4.36%, INDY -4.37%, EPI -4.54%, INDH -3.29%, SPY -1.98%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

MARKETS

Arial attacks by US & Israel on Iran, & counterattacks, have disrupted oil supplies through Middle East. US has issued a 30-day waiver for Russian container oil. India has only about 8-week inventory of crude & refined oil. GCC is also #1 trading block & #1 remittance originator. An Iranian warship returning after participating in IFR & MILAN 2026 in India was torpedoed & sunk by a US submarine near Galle, Sri Lanka (Southern coast).

Barron’s INTERNATIONAL column had recent features on India – 2/23/26 (positive) & 3/9/26 (cautionary). Indian ETFs include INDA, INDY, EPI & rupee-hedged INDH.

IT/TECH

India joined the Pax Silica Group at a ceremony at the AI Impact Summit in India. The Group was organized by US in 12/2025 to secure global supply-chains for AI & semiconductors. Signatories so far include Australia, Greece, India, Israel, Japan, Netherlands, Qatar, S Korea, Singapore, UAE, UK, US.

Bharti Airtel & US Zscaler (CEO Jay Chaudhry) are founding members of a newly launched cybersecurity research center in India with location & other participants to be announced later. Center will significantly expand Zscaler’s footprint in India.

ECONOMY

India now allows up to 100% foreign ownership in insurance, but that for LIC will be limited to 20%. LIC is 96.5% owned by government & listed only 3.5% in 05/2022 under a SEBI exemption that will finally expire in 05/2027. It will offer additional shares as FPO (follow-on public offering) to raise the listed shares to 10% of market-cap by 05/2027. Additional FPOs may follow in future.

SPECIAL TOPICS

Kotak’s family office USK Capital bought majority stake in Chicago-based healthy seed-centric snacks firm Go Raw (holding company is Freeland Foods).

STABLE-VALUE (SV) FUNDS

The stable-value (SV) funds guarantee principal & accumulated interest. The guarantee is from insurance companies. It’s best to stick with highly rated insurance companies because the workouts of failed insurers by state insurance commissioners may take years; those programs are unfunded. Insurers may offer SVs backed by their General Accounts (with higher rates) or as separate accounts (with lower rates); their ERs are not disclosed & may not be relevant. SVs are available only in workplace retirement plans because many restrictions for SVs are possible only within such plans.

SVs compete with money-market funds, ultra-short-term bond funds & short-term CDs.

The SVs are short/ intermediate-term bond portfolios with insurance wrappers for guarantees. This works because participants in retirement plans do not trade a lot & there are restrictions on deposits & withdrawals. For example, withdrawals from SVs may not go directly into competing fixed-income (FI) funds. A 30-90-day equity-wash may be required, i.e. the SV funds may have to first go into stock & bond funds with market risks before going into competing FI funds. There may also be restrictions on moving funds back into the SV.

There may be restrictions on withdrawals during company restructuring & by employees who are terminated for cause.

There are some SVs from fund firms that are not backed by insurance companies or by sponsors’ reserves. Their sponsors say that they invest very conservatively. This works only until it doesn’t. In these cases, it may be prudent to stick with such SVs from large firms who at least have their reputations to protect.

There are also SV-like products offered by TIAA (Traditional – RA, RC, SRA, RCP, IRA) & Federal TSP (G Fund). The guarantee for TSP G Fund is from the US Government; it may be used temporarily during the DC shutdowns, but the holders are made whole later. These may not have all of the features of standard SVs.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/