By: Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -10.7% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 24 (extreme fear, barely)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 55.63% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 59.20% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 10/31/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.75% (new high), Hybrids 4.05%, Bonds 17.29%, M-Mkt 16.90%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 3.75-4.00%
FOMC 12/10/25+ cut
FOMC 1/28/26+ hold

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 3.88%, 1-yr 3.61%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.47%, 5-yr 3.59%, 10-yr 4.02%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.67%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.30%, 10-yr 1.79%, 30-yr 2.48%
FRNs Index 3.780%

Bank Rates www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 12/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 3.75%
TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.125%)

India Fear & Greed MMI 68.29 (greed, high)
Weekly ETFs: INDA +0.92%, INDY +0.86%, EPI +1.18%, INDH +0.88%, SPY +3.70%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ECONOMY & MARKETS

Indian economy grew at surprising +8.2% (real) for the latest quarter despite declines in US exports. That’s the highest global economic growth. Indian stock indexes (Sensex, Nifty 50) were at new all-time highs. Unfortunately, in dollars, these indexes peaked in 09/2024 (!) – this negative effect of rupee depreciation for US investors in India funds has been noted before.

India-EU & India-US trade deal negotiations are in advanced stages.

Russian President PUTIN is visiting India December 4-5, 2025.

TOURISM. River cruises are becoming popular in India. They are available for Brahmaputra (Assam), Hugli (West Bengal), Ganges (Delhi, Varanasi, Kolkata), Vembanad Lake (Kerala), Kochi-Alleppey (Kerala), Andaman Islands, etc. US cruise line Viking will launch luxury river cruise ship Brahmaputra in 2027 & will incorporate cruises along Brahmaputra in its North Indian tours.

FINANCIALS. European private-equity CVC Capital may now buy KKR’s 63% stake in brokerage Avendus (investment banking, wealth management, alternatives). The previously reported Japanese megabank Mizuho’s deal for KKR’s 63% stalled over valuation, control & other regulatory issues. Other potential suiters include Japanese Nomura Holdings & US Carlyle Group. The needs & capabilities of foreign banks & private-equity are different & India watchers are looking at how this plays out for CVC Capital. Also, KKR, which has significant investments in India, hasn’t indicated whether it will redeploy the proceeds in India or repatriate.

SPECIAL TOPIC

Tax-Loss Harvesting (TLH), December 2025
Retail investors often wait until DECEMBER for TLH. While December is within the good seasonality period (November 1 – April 30), losing stocks for the year get sold more in December due to TLH.

The market has regular hours on the last day of trading & that is Wednesday, 12/31/25. It’s the trading date, not the settlement date, that counts for TLH.

The last day to DOUBLE-UP & sell the older lot by the yearend has passed (12/1/25).

It is easily possible to sell & simultaneously buy something SIMILAR BUT NOT IDENTICAL. For stocks, comparable stocks in the industry (this may be tricky) or sector ETFs may be used. For OEFs & ETFs, it’s easy to find ETFs for TLH swaps as there are so many similar ETFs. However, related options & other classes of funds (e.g. Vanguard indexed OEF & ETF) cannot be used for this purpose.

With TLH spread out in October (institutional; see Part 1) & December (retail; this Part 2)), the related JANUARY EFFECT for losing stocks will also be weak.

Tax losses are used to offset capital gains first, then up to $3,000 in ordinary income, & remaining tax losses can be carried over to future years. In a bad year, if you book lot of tax losses, then your taxable account essentially becomes a tax-free account until the old tax losses are exhausted.

If you gift holdings with large CGs, the cost-basis will carryover to the recipient, but the CGs would be taxes at recipient’s tax rate that may be lower.

Tax-Gain Harvesting (TGH) is useful if you are at low tax bracket now, have good capital gains (CGs) & expect tax bracket to be higher in future. Then, you can sell to book the CGs & buy back soon after to reset the cost-basis to higher levels. Notably, there is no wash-sale for CGs as there is for capital losses.

Other yearend reminders: TLH, RMDs, QCDs, donations, 529 transactions, 401k/403b contributions, Roth Conversions, gifts, tax w/h.

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/