Dr K C Gupta, YBB Personal Finance

SENTIMENTS

AAII Bull-Bear Spread -16.3% (very low)
$NYA50R, NYSE %Above 50-dMA 63.56% (positive)
$SPXA50R, SP500 %Above 50-dMA 59.20% (positive)

ICI Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 6/30/25
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.34%, Hybrids 4.14%, Bonds 17.47%, M-Mkt 17.05%

INTEREST RATES

CME FedWatch
Cycle peak 5.25-5.50%
Current 4.25-4.50%
FOMC 9/17/25+ cut
FOMC 10/29/25+ cut

Treasury

T-Bills 3-mo yield 4.30%, 1-yr 3.93%; T-Notes 2-yr 3.75%, 5-yr 3.85%, 10-yr 4.33%; T-Bonds 30-yr 4.92%;
TIPS/Real yields 5-yr 1.43%, 10-yr 1.95%, 30-yr 2.65%
FRNs Index 4.194%
US Savings I-Bonds rate from 5/1/25 – 10/31/25 is 3.98% (previous 3.11%); the fixed rate is 1.10%, the semiannual inflation is 1.43%.

For current banking rates, see www.depositaccounts.com/

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 8/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 4.25%
TSP G Fund 4.375% (previous 4.25%).

Weekly ETFs INDA +1.13%, EPI +0.84%, INDH +1.13%, SPY +0.98%

The data above are as of Sunday preceding the publication date.

ECONOMY

US-Russia summit in Alaska was inconclusive – no deal on Ukraine. This was bad news for India as secondary sanctions (25%) on India only so far (but not on China) had been linked to US-Russia negotiations. These secondary sanctions may now be deferred for a few weeks as Ukraine negotiations continue. The 6th late-August round of US-India trade negotiations has been canceled.

The US-India relations would suffer if high US tariffs of 50% on “goods” remain (25% basic, 25% secondary). Impact on Indian exports to the US will be significant despite the fact that (i) many “goods” are exempt under other rules (electronics, etc) & (ii) these “goods” tariffs don’t apply to services (IT, back-office). To make up for reduced US-India trade, India would have to expand its trade with UK (FTA, 2025), EU (FTA pending, 2025), Asia & elsewhere; FTA = Free Trade Agreement.
The weakness in Indian stocks should be seen as a buying opportunity in this perpetually expensive EM.

India now exports more smartphones than China. Several Chinese smartphones companies are also using contract manufactures in India. This is due to US-China trade tensions & incentives available under Indian PLI scheme. Much of it is final assembly in India with components imported from elsewhere. Most electronics exports from India to US (including Apple iPhones) remain exempt from tariffs.

Optiemus Infracom has partnered with US Corning/GLW (JV – Bharat Innovative Glass Technologies) to start advanced glass production in India under RhinoTech brand.

SPECIAL TOPICS
Titan (Founder/CEO Bhavin TURKHIA) has partnered with US GoDaddy/GDDY to offer AI-enhanced email service to small businesses as alternative to Microsoft Outlook & Google Gmail. Note that oil refinery & fuel distributor Nayara Energy that came under EU sanctions related to Russian oil had its access suddenly discontinued for Microsoft (MSFT, US) Azure cloud, Outlook, Teams, etc, but the access was restored after a lawsuit. So, alternative IT systems are important.

BROKERED CDs

Certificates of deposit (CDs) are popular with savers & investors. You can buy them at BANKS or BROKERAGES, but there are significant differences in those.

The CDs bought at brokers are called brokered CDs. These offer convenience & flexibility – the CDs from multiple banks can be bought from the same brokerage account & each brokered CD will typically have a separate FDIC coverage within the rules. Longer-term (10+ years) brokered CDs are also available.

Brokered CDs are expensive for banks to raise money, but they can raise deposit money through this channel quickly & without tying up their branch staff for days/ weeks.

Brokered CDs differ in one important respect from bank CDs (bought directly from banks). Brokered CDs fluctuate daily in values according to the current bid-ask in the secondary market that depend on interest rates & other factors. The new buyers of brokered CDs are bothered/ puzzled by this mark-to-market (MTM) practice.

You will get the current bid if you sell early (retail buyers sell at bid, buy at ask). There may also be nominal fees for buying or selling CDs in the secondary market. The secondary market for CDs is not very liquid & selling brokered CDs early may incur large losses. However, they will pay full/ promised amount (principal plus interest) on maturity. If you may need the money before maturity, stick to very liquid T-Bills/Notes.

On the other hand, bank CDs have defined interest penalties for early withdrawals (typically 3–6-month interest) but don’t fluctuate daily in values. Bank CDs may also be titled with POD/TOD with the FDIC insurance applying for up to 5 such CDs (including all trusts).

For more information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/