A senior US policy expert has cautioned that the newly announced India–US trade deal, while welcome, will not instantly repair trust damaged by months of tariff disputes and diplomatic friction.

Evan A. Feigenbaum, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argued in a recent commentary that the agreement marks progress but remains fragile in nature. Unlike the recently concluded India–EU Free Trade Agreement, which is a formal pact, the India–US understanding is described as a “deal,” suggesting flexibility but also uncertainty.

President Donald Trump has said the US will cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent, down from an effective 50 per cent that included a 25 per cent penalty linked to India’s purchases of Russian oil. Trump also claimed that India would commit to buying up to $500 billion in US goods and services over time, a figure Feigenbaum called aspirational rather than realistic.

Feigenbaum noted that US exports to India stood at about $41.5 billion in goods and $41.8 billion in services in 2024, meaning such a jump would require a dramatic and unprecedented surge in bilateral trade.

He said rolling back the earlier tariffs was necessary because the standoff had begun to stall broader cooperation in defence, technology, and strategic partnerships. However, he warned that tariffs alone do not determine investment decisions, and India still faces tough competition from Southeast Asian economies with stronger supply chains.

On energy, Feigenbaum acknowledged that India has gradually reduced Russian oil imports but is unlikely to publicly abandon them due to its strategic ties with Moscow.

He also said recent tensions have re-politicised a relationship that had been largely stable since the early 2000s. While the deal reduces immediate friction, he stressed that rebuilding confidence will take time.

In his view, both nations are in a better position today than months ago — but trust, once shaken, cannot be restored overnight.