Indian intelligence agencies have identified Bangladesh’s upcoming national elections and renewed efforts by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) as the most serious security challenges facing India’s northeastern states in the coming year, according to multiple assessments by the Intelligence Bureau (IB).

Officials say the regional security environment is becoming increasingly fragile, particularly as both Bangladesh and Myanmar are heading into elections amid internal instability and deteriorating law-and-order conditions. With heightened international scrutiny and rising domestic tensions in both countries, Indian agencies expect potential spillover effects along India’s eastern and northeastern borders.

India’s primary concern is Bangladesh, where elections are scheduled for February 12. With the Awami League barred from contesting, the political battle is expected to be dominated by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami, which Indian agencies allege receives backing from Pakistan’s ISI.

Under the interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus, intelligence officials claim that violence against minorities—particularly Hindus—has risen sharply, with daily reports of attacks, intimidation, and arson. Agencies also point to what they describe as a marked shift in Dhaka’s foreign posture, including improved engagement with Pakistan, easing of visa norms, and the opening of maritime routes—moves viewed in New Delhi as strategically concerning.

An IB official noted that unlike Myanmar, where there is no significant anti-India sentiment, Bangladesh currently presents a far more complex challenge. “There is an aggressive narrative being built that portrays India as the principal adversary,” the official said. This rhetoric is not limited to Islamist groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami but has also been echoed by newer political formations like the National Citizen Party (NCP).

According to intelligence inputs, NCP leaders, including Hasnat Abdullah, have publicly threatened to provide shelter to anti-India elements. Officials believe that several political actors in Bangladesh see electoral advantage in mobilising voters through anti-India sentiment, creating space for extremist and terror-linked organisations.

Indian agencies have raised concerns over the alleged revival and protection of groups such as Harkat-ul-Jihadi Islami (HuJI) and Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), which are believed to be operating with ISI support to destabilise India’s Northeast. References to “Greater Bangladesh” maps and remarks describing India’s northeastern region as “landlocked” have further raised red flags within India’s security establishment.

Recent developments appear to reinforce these concerns. Earlier this week, Assam Police dismantled a Bangladesh-linked terror module, arresting 11 individuals allegedly activated by the ISI ahead of the Bangladesh elections. The group operated under the name Imam Mahmuder Kafila (IMK), which officials say is a proxy network linked to JMB.

Intelligence officials warn that the India–Bangladesh border will remain especially vulnerable in the pre-election period. There are fears that violence in Bangladesh or Myanmar could spill into Indian territory, triggering attempts to infiltrate insurgents, push illegal immigration, and smuggle arms, fake currency, and narcotics into northeastern states and West Bengal.

For New Delhi, officials say the approach will be one of vigilance and containment. “Until the election processes conclude and formal diplomatic channels stabilise, border security will be our top priority,” an IB official said, adding that preventing instability within India remains the foremost objective.