A strategic doctrine led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is needed to protect Indian Ocean nations from China’s expanding influence and “predatory ambitions,” according to a report by a US policy expert.

Writing in The Sunday Guardian, Michael Rubin, Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington DC, argued that India’s growing global stature requires a regional security doctrine aligned with its economic and geopolitical influence.

Rubin noted that since Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed office in 2014, India’s economic position has strengthened significantly. At the time, India was the world’s 10th largest economy, but it has now risen to become the fourth largest.

According to the report, Modi’s leadership has also been marked by major infrastructure expansion and the ability to steer India through complex domestic and international challenges.

However, Rubin warned that India’s rise will not be accepted quietly by its adversaries, particularly China and Pakistan. He suggested that both countries could attempt to constrain New Delhi through asymmetric strategies.

To counter these challenges, Rubin proposed the creation of a “Modi Doctrine,” drawing parallels with the Monroe Doctrine declared by US President James Monroe in the 19th century. The Monroe Doctrine established the United States as the dominant power in the Western Hemisphere and warned European nations against interfering in the region.

Similarly, Rubin argued that a Modi Doctrine could establish India as the principal security provider in the Indian Ocean region.

He emphasised that such a doctrine would not restrict freedom of navigation or lawful trade but would counter China’s growing influence through debt diplomacy and strategic infrastructure investments.

Rubin pointed to China’s Belt and Road Initiative projects, including port developments in Colombo and Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Chittagong in Bangladesh, Kyaukphyu in Myanmar, and Bagamoyo in Tanzania, as examples of expanding Chinese influence.

According to him, China’s financial leverage and political engagement in countries such as Maldives and Mauritius risk creating a form of “neo-colonialism” in the region.

The report also highlighted concerns about Chinese fishing fleets operating in the Indian Ocean, accusing them of violating exclusive economic zones and engaging in unsustainable fishing practices.

Rubin argued that the Indian Navy should play a central role in safeguarding maritime security across the Indian Ocean basin.

More than 2.8 billion people living in countries surrounding the Indian Ocean depend on the stability and security of these waters, he said.

While Chinese vessels may pass through the region, Rubin stressed that they should not be allowed to establish permanent bases or dual-use military facilities.

Regional security and the sovereignty of smaller nations, he concluded, require India to emerge as the paramount power in the Indian Ocean.