BJP’s Triumph in Haryana: Setting theStage for Wins in Maharashtra,Jharkhand, & Delhi

By Rakesh Malhotra

A Pro-Incumbency Wave, Unprecedented Support across all segments

The recently concluded election in Haryana has reaffirmed the BJP’s dominance in
Indian politics, delivering a decisive win that will have far-reaching implications for
upcoming elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Securing the highest number of
seats ever, the BJP garnered an impressive 39.94% vote share, demonstrating a solid
pro-incumbency wave. This victory is particularly significant because it comes despite
opposition narratives portraying a decline in support, especially among key
demographic groups like farmers, Jats, and Dalits.

Critical Aspects of BJP’s Victory in Haryana
Stronghold in Diverse Regions: The BJP’s victory in Haryana is not just a win but a
testament to its broad appeal and ability to balance rural and urban interests. The party
has once again proven its ability to maintain a stronghold in Haryana’s diverse regions,
winning 13 out of 25 seats in the Jat belt and 8 out of 17 seats reserved for SC. This
victory across caste lines is crucial in a state with significant social diversity.

Success with New Blood: The BJP’s victory in Haryana is not just a win, but a
reflection of its strategy of injecting fresh leadership while maintaining voter trust. Ten
out of 14 new candidates fielded by the BJP have emerged victorious, defying any anti-
incumbency narrative. This success with new candidates indicates that the BJP has
positioned itself as a party for experienced leaders and rising political figures.

Rural and Agrarian Support: Contrary to expectations that the BJP might have lost
ground in rural areas, the party has secured 31 out of 63 rural constituencies. This is
particularly significant given the farmers’ protests that had led to political speculation
about a rural backlash. Gurnam Singh Charuni, a prominent leader of the 2020-21
farmers’ protest, suffered a significant loss in the Pehowa constituency in the
Kurukshetra district; he only garnered 1,170 votes, failing to retain his deposit. This
setback underscores the evolving political landscape and shifting dynamics of agrarian issues and protests in the state. The BJP’s focus on agricultural reforms and rural
development has helped retain the support of farmers and rural communities.

Trust Across Demographics: The BJP’s victory in Haryana is not just a win, but a
demonstration of its ability to secure votes across diverse demographics including Jats,
Dalits, farmers, men, women, and youth, unequivocally demonstrates the party’s
widespread trust and support. By addressing diverse voter concerns through
development initiatives, social welfare schemes, and its governance model, the BJP has
successfully consolidated its voter base, setting a powerful precedent for upcoming
elections.

Pro-Incumbency Sentiment: In an environment where anti-incumbency is often a
significant factor, the BJP benefited from a wave of pro-incumbency sentiment. Voters in
Haryana rewarded the party for its governance over the last two terms, particularly in
infrastructure development, law and order, and social welfare initiatives. This pro-
incumbency sentiment helped the BJP win 31 out of 63 rural constituencies, and 17 out
of 27 urban constituencies demonstrating that the party had retained its core base and
expanded it. The BJP’s strategic decision to replace Manohar Lal Khattar with OBC
leader Nayab Singh Saini proved to be a masterstroke in countering anti-incumbency.
Despite Khattar’s nearly two-term tenure marked by a clean image and no corruption
charges, the party recognized the need for fresh leadership to address changing voter
dynamics. By appointing Saini, a prominent OBC leader, the BJP not only strengthened
its appeal among backward classes but also reinvigorated its base, signaling a shift
toward inclusive representation. This move helped the party mitigate any potential voter
fatigue and positioned it for a decisive victory, proving that a change in leadership can
overcome anti-incumbency challenges.

Strong election campaign under Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini

The leadership of Haryana’s Chief Minister, Nayab Singh Saini, an influential OBC
leader, played a crucial role in the BJP’s hat-trick victory. His leadership resonated with
the OBC community, which forms a significant portion of Haryana’s population. Saini’s
focus on inclusive development and his ability to connect with grassroots issues
solidified his position as a strong leader. His leadership style, which combined a focus
on governance with the promotion of social equity, helped bridge gaps across different
communities and furthered BJP’s appeal. This connection with grassroots issues instills
confidence in the BJP’s understanding of local concerns.

Impact on the Opposition INDIA Alliance

The Haryana results come at a critical time for Indian politics. As the fifth state where
the BJP has formed the government for a third consecutive term, this victory boosts its
momentum heading into Maharashtra, Delhi and Jharkhand, where similar electoral challenges lie ahead. With its complex caste dynamics and strong regional political identities, Maharashtra will particularly benefit from lessons learned in Haryana, where the BJP navigated caste alliances adeptly.

The INDIA Alliance, comprising parties like Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and
others, faces a formidable challenge. The BJP’s victory in Haryana demonstrates that
opposition narratives accusing the party of losing touch with grassroots issues are not
resonating with voters. The BJP’s ability to address concerns across communities,
whether farmers, Dalits, or Jats, presents a clear threat to the opposition’s base, forcing
them to rethink their strategy ahead of elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

The humiliating defeat of Congress in the Haryana assembly elections highlights a
series of strategic missteps, including poor candidate selection, internal infighting,
overconfidence, and inadequate management of the election campaign. This dismal
performance reflects the party’s inability to connect with voters and jeopardizes its
bargaining power among allies and regional parties as the political landscape shifts
ahead of upcoming elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Delhi. As Congress
struggles to assert itself, its diminished stature raises critical questions about Rahul
Gandhi’s leadership and effectiveness as the opposition leader. This loss significantly
undermines the party’s credibility, making it more challenging to form coalitions or
present a united front against the BJP, intensifying Congress’s urgency to reassess its
strategies and leadership dynamics moving forward.

The BJP’s decisive victory in Haryana, coupled with the Aam Aadmi Party’s dismal
performance, where it lost deposits in 87 out of 88 seats and garnered only 1.79% of
the vote, has significant implications for the upcoming Delhi elections. AAP’s rejection
by the voters of Haryana, despite an aggressive campaign by Arvind Kejriwal, signals
potential challenges for the party in its home turf of Delhi. As neighboring states,
Haryana and Delhi share cultural, social, and economic ties, and the resounding defeat
of AAP in Haryana indicates that its appeal may be waning beyond its urban stronghold.
With this result, the BJP has gained a psychological edge, and the electoral landscape
in Delhi could now shift as the BJP seeks to capitalize on AAP’s loss of momentum,
challenging its governance model and grassroots outreach ahead of the Delhi elections.

Caste and Demographic Social Engineering

Haryana’s election reflects the BJP’s masterful use of social engineering. By addressing
the concerns of both dominant and marginalized caste groups, the BJP has managed to
consolidate its position in regions with diverse caste compositions. This strategic
approach will likely be replicated in Maharashtra, where the Marathi Manus vote wields
considerable influence, much like the Jats in Haryana. Additionally, the BJP’s outreach
to Dalits, women, and youth through welfare schemes and development projects will be
a critical factor in its electoral strategy in both states.

Rural and Urban Appeal

The BJP’s victory in rural Haryana, coupled with its ability to win over urban voters,
indicates a balanced approach that resonates with both constituencies. Maharashtra
and Jharkhand, which also have a mix of urban and rural populations, will likely see the
BJP leveraging this dual appeal, emphasizing development and agricultural reforms to
solidify its voter base. This balanced approach reassures voters of the BJP’s
commitment to inclusive governance.

Momentum Matters: Setting the stage for Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi

The BJP’s overwhelming success in Haryana has set a powerful precedent for the
upcoming state elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Delhi. With its highest-ever
seat tally and an impressive 39% vote share, the BJP has shown its ability to resonate
with a wide array of voter segments, including rural voters, Dalits, Jaats, and women.
This victory, alongside its strong performance in Jammu, demonstrates the party’s
growing influence in consolidating and uniting Hindu votes, a crucial factor in these
states where communal dynamics play an important role. By focusing on the themes of
governance, development, and Hindutva, the BJP has managed to strengthen its base
and widen its appeal across both urban and rural constituencies.

The momentum from Haryana and Jammu provides the BJP with a significant
psychological and electoral advantage as it prepares for the Maharashtra and
Jharkhand elections. This win not only affirms the party’s governance model but also
highlights its ability to counter anti-incumbency through strategic candidate selection
and robust campaign management. The BJP’s approach of uniting Hindu votes across
caste lines, as seen in Haryana and Jammu, is likely to be a central pillar in its strategy
for upcoming elections. The party’s focus on development projects, rural outreach, and
a strong Hindutva narrative gives it the tools to appeal to both urban and rural voters in
Maharashtra and Jharkhand, where similar voter dynamics are at play.

In conclusion, the BJP’s victory in Haryana sets the stage for crucial upcoming elections
in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Delhi. The party’s ability to consolidate Hindu votes and
maintain its appeal across different demographics reflects its political strength and
strategic acumen. For the opposition, these results highlight the need for urgent
recalibration, as the BJP’s momentum shows no signs of slowing down. The political
battles ahead will be intense, but for now, the BJP has demonstrated that it remains a
dominant force in Indian politics.