From Upset to Insight: Haryana and J&K Results and Their Implications for Maharashtra’s Political Landscape”

Dr. Avi Verma, Publisher, IndoUS Tribune

The results of the recent elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir offer a striking contrast, exposing both the strengths and vulnerabilities of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP). While the BJP celebrated an unexpected victory in Haryana, the results in
Jammu & Kashmir reflected a political setback. This divergence calls into question some of the
core strategies of the Modi government, particularly its approach to contentious regions like
Kashmir, where the revocation of Article 370 continues to stir unrest.

Jammu & Kashmir: A Reflection of Policy Failure?

The BJP’s electoral loss in Jammu & Kashmir is not just a defeat in numbers, but a significant political statement. The decision to revoke Article 370 in 2019 was intended to integrate the region more fully into India and bring about peace and development. However, the National Conference-Congress alliance’s resounding victory shows that many Kashmiris are still disillusioned with the Modi government’s policies. While the BJP remains strong in Jammu, its support in Kashmir has dwindled, underscoring the ongoing disconnect between the region’s aspirations and the central government’s policies.

The local assembly, stripped of meaningful power, is largely symbolic under the current
governance structure. With high unemployment and continued unrest, the promises of progress following the revocation of Article 370 appear unfulfilled. As Omar Abdullah of the Jammu Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) pointed out, the local government operates under severe restrictions, with even basic administrative tasks requiring approval from a centrally-appointed Lieutenant Governor.

Haryana: How Congress Lost A Sure-Shot Election Yet Again

The Haryana assembly elections will go down in Indian electoral history as one of the biggest
upsets. Once again, Congress proved that it has mastered the art of losing winnable elections. All indications pointed toward a strong victory for the party, yet the BJP, which no opinion poll had  predicted to win, managed not only a victory but a resounding one. This is yet another example of how unreliable election predictions have become in a country as diverse as India, and how the Congress party continues to fail in capitalizing on favorable conditions.

The BJP’s Victory: Strategic Planning and Adaptability

The BJP’s victory in Haryana is a testament to its relentless spirit under Prime Minister Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Despite facing tough odds, the party moved swiftly to adjust its strategy, starting with a critical change in leadership. The replacement of the nine-and- a-half-year incumbent Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC leader, was a masterstroke. Khattar’s exclusion from the campaign, along with the strategic focus on non-Jat votes, shifted the tide in the BJP’s favor.

The party’s meticulous planning was evident throughout the campaign, with a focus on ensuring voter turnout and consolidating its base, especially among the non-Jat electorate. The BJP recognized that Jats, who form over 20% of Haryana’s population, would not be their primary supporters and worked diligently to mobilize the OBC and non-Jat vote, which ultimately delivered the victory.

Congress’s Failure: Factionalism and Complacency

On the other hand, the Congress was once again a victim of its own internal discord and
overconfidence. The rivalry between Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja not only divided the party but also caused a lack of focus. The Congress leadership failed to consolidate its voter base or manage its factions effectively. Moreover, Rahul Gandhi’s reluctance to push for an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) proved costly. Even though AAP didn’t win any seats, its small share of the vote could have significantly impacted the outcome had the two parties joined forces.

In a tight contest, Congress also underestimated the importance of smaller political alliances. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), despite limited electoral success, managed to capture a crucial 6% of the vote. This splintering of the Dalit and Jat votes, which Congress had been counting on, further weakened the party’s chances.

Lessons for the Congress: Failing to Learn from History

This is not the first time Congress has thrown away a winning hand. Similar situations unfolded in other states like Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand, where the party should have easily won but lost due to poor strategy, factionalism, and an inability to energize its base. In Haryana, Congress’s outdated leadership and lack of campaign dynamism were glaring issues. Both Hooda and Kamal Nath, in Madhya Pradesh, represent an older generation of leaders who are no longer in touch with the changing political landscape.

If Congress is serious about competing with the Modi-led BJP, it must reevaluate its leadership and embrace younger, more dynamic leaders capable of modern electoral strategies. The BJP’s win in Haryana is a clear signal that complacency and factionalism are no longer tolerable in Indian politics.

Implications for Maharashtra: An Upsurge in BJP’s Confidence

The results in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir have stirred a sense of optimism within the Mahayuti ruling alliance in Maharashtra. Following the Haryana results, BJP leaders are expressing confidence that they will replicate their performance in the upcoming Maharashtra elections. The Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde group) has attributed the success to the people’s rejection of a “fake narrative,” asserting that the citizens are satisfied with the Shinde government’s performance.

BJP State leadership, buoyed by the victories, believes that the people of Haryana have
demonstrated their trust in Prime Minister Modi, which could translate into heightened confidence and voter turnout in Maharashtra. Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis
highlighted that the Haryana results reinforce the BJP’s narrative against divisive politics, suggesting that similar sentiments will resonate with the voters in Maharashtra.

Meanwhile, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) expressed hope that the recent results would lead those who left the party to reconsider their decisions. Praful Patel’s comments emphasize that while the Maharashtra electoral landscape is unique, the positivity stemming from Haryana’s outcome will energize the party’s cadres and consolidate their position.

As the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance continues to strategize, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Uddhav Thackeray has called for an announcement of a Chief Ministerial face before the election. The Mahayuti alliance is keenly aware that the Haryana results could  emotivate the opposition coalition in Maharashtra, putting them at a disadvantage.

Conclusion: A Tale of Two States

The electoral outcomes in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir reveal a lot about the political
currents in India today. The BJP’s persistence, adaptability, and strategic planning delivered a hard-fought victory in Haryana, while loosing in Jammu & Kashmir dearly. Congress, once again, let slip a golden opportunity by failing to unite and mobilize its base.

As Maharashtra gears up for its elections, the implications of these results will undoubtedly loom large, with the BJP hoping to ride the wave of confidence and the opposition striving to regroup.
The IndoUS Tribune will continue to monitor these developments closely, offering deep insights into the evolving dynamics of Indian politics.