By: Dr Avi Verma

The introduction of legislation in the U.S. Congress aimed at sharply restricting or even phasing out the H-1B visa program has reignited debate over the future of skilled migration between India and the United States. While such bills face long odds in a divided Congress, their very existence reflects a broader tightening of the Aerican immigration climate.

For more than three decades, the H-1B visa has underpinned a powerful “brain circulation” between India and the U.S., helping fuel innovation in Silicon Valley while strengthening India’s remittance flows and global technology footprint. Although there is currently no law eliminating the H-1B program, recurring legislative efforts to cap or curtail it — combined with rising compliance costs, higher wage scrutiny, and political rhetoric around domestic labor protection — signal a period of structural uncertainty.

At present, H-1B visas continue to be allocated through a lottery system when applications exceed the annual cap. Proposals in recent years have included wage-weighted selection models and substantially higher employer fees, but these have not been enacted into law. Even so, the policy direction is clear: scrutiny is intensifying.

This is less about a single bill and more about a recalibration of the “American Dream” for the Indian tech diaspora.

How India’s tech industry is adjusting

Rather than reacting with alarm, India’s major technology firms appear to be adapting through gradual decoupling and diversification.

• Local hiring in the U.S.: Large IT services firms such as Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and Wipro have steadily increased local U.S. hiring over the past decade. While H-1B usage remains part of their workforce strategy, dependency has declined relative to the early 2010s as firms invest in American talent pipelines and automation.

• The rise of Global Capability Centers (GCCs): Multinational corporations are expanding operations in India rather than relocating employees to the U.S. Industry estimates place the number of GCCs in India at over 1,500, employing well over 1.5 million professionals. This model allows U.S. companies to tap Indian talent without navigating visa constraints.

• The AI inflection point: The growth of generative AI and automation tools is reshaping service delivery models. Routine coding, testing, and maintenance — historically large areas of offshore or visa-dependent staffing — are increasingly augmented by AI systems, reducing sensitivity to immigration policy shifts.

The Indian government’s position

New Delhi’s response has been measured.

• Public downplaying: Indian officials, including Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, have suggested that in a post-pandemic world of hybrid and remote work, the relative importance of physical relocation has declined — signaling confidence in India’s domestic tech ecosystem.

• Strategic framing: The Ministry of External Affairs continues to describe skilled mobility as mutually beneficial to both nations, emphasizing that Indian professionals contribute significantly to U.S. innovation, especially in emerging sectors like AI, semiconductors, and cybersecurity.

• Talent diversification: With green card backlogs for Indian nationals stretching many years in employment-based categories, Indian professionals are increasingly exploring alternative destinations such as Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia, which have expanded skilled migration pathways in recent years.

The bottom line

The proposed restrictions — including bills that seek to eliminate or drastically shrink the H-1B program — face significant political hurdles. Yet the environment they represent is already influencing corporate strategy and individual career decisions.

Whether or not any specific bill becomes law, the era of frictionless skilled mobility between India and the U.S. is giving way to a more complex, multipolar tech order. India is no longer positioned solely as a supplier of talent to America; it is increasingly a destination for global innovation in its own right.

The question is no longer whether the corridor will change — but how fast.