Strategic path forward for India in Trump’s 2024 term

By: Avi Verma MD(h)

With Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2024, the IndoUS Tribune believes India is positioned at a critical juncture to advance and safeguard its strategic, economic, and regional interests. Trump’s reelection marks not only a continuation but also an evolution of the U.S.-India relationship. Central to this alliance is the rapport between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi—a friendship that played a vital role during Trump’s first term and promises unique advantages as we look forward.

The Modi-Trump Friendship: A Pillar for Strengthened Relations

The personal camaraderie between Trump and Modi is more than symbolic. Their rapport, developed through historic visits and public gatherings such as the “Howdy Modi” event in Houston and the “Namaste Trump” event in Ahmedabad, underscores a relationship that goes beyond traditional diplomacy. This friendship fosters mutual respect and understanding, providing both leaders with a foundation to navigate complex policy challenges while maintaining open lines of communication. Such closeness is rare in international relations, and India can leverage it to secure cooperative agreements that might be more challenging under other administrations.

Strategic Defense and Security Cooperation

Modi and Trump share a common vision when it comes to counterterrorism and regional security. Their shared views have already resulted in significant U.S. arms sales to India, the enhancement of joint military exercises, and the designation of India as a Major Defense Partner. Under Trump’s renewed leadership, this partnership will likely deepen, enabling India to access advanced technology and defense systems that bolster its security and defensive postures. For India, this means a more resilient position against regional threats, especially from neighboring adversaries. Moreover, the strength of their personal friendship suggests that Modi will have a powerful advocate in Trump to maintain U.S. support for India’s counterterrorism and defense initiatives.

Indo-Pacific Strategy: A Unified Approach to Countering China

One of the most pressing challenges for both India and the U.S. is managing China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific region. With Modi’s “Act East” policy and Trump’s “America First” approach, both leaders have found common ground in a commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. Modi’s personal relationship with Trump could be instrumental in ensuring that U.S. support remains steadfast, particularly as tensions with China continue to shape the geopolitical landscape.

This alignment allows India to actively collaborate within the Quad framework, a strategic alliance that also includes Japan and Australia, to maintain regional stability. Trump’s preference for bilateral ties over multilateral coalitions works in India’s favor, allowing Modi to engage the U.S. directly without being entangled in broader, complex alliances that may dilute India’s interests.

Economic Synergies and Trade Negotiations

The “Modi-Trump” bond has the potential to unlock fresh opportunities in trade. While Trump’s policies generally lean towards protectionism, the mutual respect between the two leaders could pave the way for a special bilateral trade deal. Modi’s ability to engage Trump directly on trade matters may allow India to secure concessions that other nations would struggle to achieve. For example, in sectors where India excels—pharmaceuticals, technology, and energy—India could negotiate favorable terms that benefit its economy while respecting Trump’s “America First” agenda.

Trump’s previous term saw the U.S. withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), focusing instead on bilateral agreements. This approach aligns well with Modi’s focus on self-reliance and local manufacturing (Atmanirbhar Bharat), presenting an opening for India to boost its exports to the U.S. while reinforcing domestic industries.

Cultural and Diaspora Diplomacy: A Growing Indian Influence

The Indian-American community, now over 4 million strong, is a growing force in American politics and society, playing a significant role in cementing ties between the two nations. Trump’s administration has previously acknowledged the contributions of Indian-Americans, and his friendship with Modi could mean a sustained appreciation of this community’s impact.

Public events, like “Howdy Modi,” highlighted the strength of the Indian diaspora and its bridge-building potential. For Indian-Americans, a Modi-Trump alliance means more visibility and influence, which, in turn, strengthens India’s cultural and diplomatic footprint in the U.S.

Challenges Ahead: Balancing America First with India’s Sovereignty

While the friendship between Modi and Trump is an asset, it is not without its challenges. Trump’s commitment to “America First” could at times clash with India’s own strategic priorities. India must remain vigilant to ensure that cooperative agreements with the U.S. serve its interests without compromising sovereignty or strategic autonomy.

For instance, India’s trade negotiations must protect key sectors while embracing U.S. investment, and defense collaborations should enhance India’s security without over-reliance on U.S. technology. In diplomacy, India must also maintain a firm stance against external involvement in its internal affairs, particularly regarding sensitive issues like Kashmir.

Final Thoughts: A Strategic Path Forward

As Publisher of the IndoUS Tribune, I see Trump’s return to office as a historic moment for U.S.-India relations. The Modi-Trump friendship provides India with a strategic advantage—an opportunity to further its global standing, enhance its security, and strengthen its economy. With Modi’s leadership and Trump’s willingness to embrace allies who share a vision for global stability, India stands poised to navigate this renewed relationship effectively.

The IndoUS Tribune remains committed to keeping our community informed on the evolving relationship between India and the U.S., and we look forward to reporting on the developments that will undoubtedly shape the future of both nations.