Ceasefire in Ukraine, Trump’s global gambits, and the cost to America

By: Dr. Avi Verma

After months of stalled diplomacy, a tentative ceasefire deal has been brokered between the U.S. and Ukraine, following what many have called an Oval Office debacle. President Biden’s administration, pressured by both domestic political opposition and NATO allies, managed to push for an agreement that seeks to de-escalate the war that has raged since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. However, the question looms—will Vladimir Putin accept a permanent ceasefire, or is this merely a temporary pause before another wave of conflict?

Historically, ceasefires involving Russia and Ukraine have proven fragile. The Minsk agreements in 2014 and 2015, intended to halt fighting in the Donbas region, collapsed due to repeated violations. Even the much-publicized grain corridor agreement, brokered by Turkey and the UN, fell apart in 2023 when Russia withdrew its cooperation. With Putin’s strategic interests in maintaining influence over Eastern Ukraine, history suggests that this ceasefire, like others before it, may be on borrowed time.

Trump’s trade wars: Canada, Mexico, Europe, and India in the crosshairs

While international observers debate the fate of Ukraine, Donald Trump—widely expected to be the Republican nominee for the 2024 U.S. presidential race—has been making waves with renewed attacks on America’s closest allies. His ongoing trade rhetoric has sparked fears of a return to the high-tariff policies of his first term, when his administration imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. The retaliatory tariffs led to billions in losses for American farmers and manufacturers before some were lifted under the USMCA agreement.

Now, Trump has turned his attention to India. During a recent campaign speech, he lambasted India’s trade policies and signaled his intent to reintroduce higher tariffs on Indian imports, specifically targeting sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and IT services—industries that account for a $128 billion annual trade relationship between the two nations.

Trump has long claimed that India places “unfair” tariffs on American goods, particularly dairy and motorcycles. While India does have import duties on products such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles (originally at 100%, later reduced to 50%), the reality is that under his first administration, U.S.-India trade ties actually strengthened. However, if Trump follows through on new tariff threats, it could push Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to deepen economic partnerships with the EU, Russia, and even China, reshaping global trade alignments.

The fight for Greenland: A political distraction?

Adding to the geopolitical turbulence, Greenland’s recent elections have once again raised speculation about Trump’s long-standing ambition to acquire the Arctic territory. In 2019, when Trump first suggested that the U.S. should purchase Greenland—a semi-autonomous Danish territory—the idea was met with diplomatic backlash from Denmark and mockery from political observers. However, his administration made serious efforts, including increasing U.S. investment in Greenland’s natural resources.

With Greenland’s recent election shifting power dynamics, will Trump revive his controversial idea? More importantly, is this a distraction from urgent domestic economic concerns? While global power plays grab headlines, American families are struggling with inflation, a slowing job market, and concerns about a potential recession.

America’s economic crossroads: Are global fights coming at a cost?

While Trump positions himself as a tough negotiator on the world stage, many economists warn that his trade battles and international gambits could worsen the already fragile U.S. economy.

• Stock Market Volatility: The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have seen fluctuations in response to global uncertainties, with concerns that trade wars could lead to market instability similar to the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war, which wiped out billions in stock value.
• Inflation and Grocery Prices: The price of essential goods, including food and fuel, remains high. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported that grocery prices rose by 3.2% year-over-year as of January 2024, affecting household budgets across the country.
• Trade Dependence: If Trump’s tariff policies return, companies reliant on imports could see higher costs passed down to American consumers, worsening inflation.

What’s next?

With the 2024 U.S. elections approaching, the world is watching closely. Will Trump’s tough stance on Ukraine, NATO, Canada, Mexico, India, and Greenland position him as a “strong leader,” or will it be seen as reckless adventurism that undermines America’s economic stability? More importantly, will the average American benefit from these international fights, or pay the price through higher costs and economic uncertainty?

At IndoUS Tribune, we remain committed to tracking these developments, ensuring that our readers stay informed about the shifting tides of global politics and their impact on U.S.-India relations.