Trump’s second inauguration and the future of Indo-US relations
By: Dr. Avi Verma
As Donald Trump takes office for his second term as President of the United States, the geopolitical landscape is shifting, with significant implications for Indo-US relations. Today’s inauguration has brought to light several key developments that warrant careful analysis.
Modi’s absence: A diplomatic slight or strategic move?
The absence of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Trump’s inauguration has raised eyebrows in diplomatic circles. Unlike Chinese President Xi Jinping, who received an invitation but declined to attend (sending Vice President Han Zheng instead), Modi was notably not extended an invitation. This apparent snub has fueled speculation about the current state of Indo-US relations.
Sources close to the matter suggest that this could be a repercussion of Modi’s refusal to meet with Trump during his visit to the US in September 2024. The decision to not invite Modi, while extending an invitation to the Chinese leadership, sends a clear message about the Trump administration’s priorities in Asia.
Jaishankar’s presence: Damage control or routine diplomacy?
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s attendance at the inauguration has been closely watched. Reports from international media outlets, including Al Jazeera and CNN, indicate that Jaishankar was accorded a front-row seat at the ceremony, alongside other foreign dignitaries. This positioning suggests that while personal relations between Trump and Modi may be strained, institutional ties remain strong.
However, questions persist about Jaishankar’s extended stay in Washington prior to the inauguration. Some speculate it was an attempt to secure an invitation for Modi, while others view it as a routine inspection of the US Embassy. The truth likely lies somewhere in between, reflecting India’s efforts to maintain diplomatic channels in a changing political landscape.
The price of past choices
India’s perceived alignment with the Biden administration over the past four years may now come at a cost. Trump’s “America First” policy and his transactional approach to international relations could lead to increased pressure on India in areas such as trade, defense purchases, and regional security cooperation.
The rift between Trump and Modi personally, juxtaposed with the seemingly warmer relations with China (as evidenced by the invitation to Xi), raises concerns about India’s strategic position in the Indo-Pacific region. This situation potentially benefits China, which may seek to exploit any perceived distance between Washington and New Delhi.
Looking ahead: Navigating choppy diplomatic waters
As we enter this new era of US foreign policy under Trump’s second term, India faces the challenge of recalibrating its approach. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the personal disconnect between leaders will translate into broader policy shifts.
Key areas to watch include:
- Trade negotiations and potential tariffs
- Cooperation on counter-terrorism and regional security
- US stance on India’s role in international forums like the UN Security Council
- Technology transfers and defense cooperation
India’s diplomatic corps, led by the experienced Jaishankar, will need to navigate these choppy waters carefully. The goal will be to maintain the strategic partnership’s momentum while adapting to the new realities of Trump’s foreign policy priorities.
In conclusion, while the current situation presents challenges, it also offers opportunities for India to reassess and potentially strengthen its strategic autonomy. As we move forward, the Indo-US Tribune will continue to provide in-depth analysis and unbiased reporting on these crucial developments shaping the future of Indo-US relations.
